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Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast

Final/OTESPN+, NBC Sports Phil, CARNHL

Away

Hurricanes

1-1-1

3–2

at

Home

Flyers

0-1-2

CAR 55%PHI 45%

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Xfinity Mobile Arena · ESPN+, NBC Sports Phil, CARNHL

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.

PHI favored CAR favored5 scoring plays
P1P2P3OTPHI50%CAR

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Hurricanes
Flyers

Scoring summary

  • OT2:51Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (2), Sebastian Aho (1)3–2
  • P34:59Sebastian Aho Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (1), Andrei Svechnikov (3)2–2
  • P27:20Matvei Michkov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (2), Christian Dvorak (1)1–2
  • P18:03Owen Tippett Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (1)1–1
  • P10:10Sebastian Aho Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: William Carrier (2), Andrei Svechnikov (2)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P10:10Sebastian Aho Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: William Carrier (2), Andrei Svechnikov (2)CAR 1 – 0 PHI · CAR 55% → 69% +14
  2. P18:03Owen Tippett Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (1)CAR 1 – 1 PHI · PHI 30% → 45% +15
  3. P27:20Matvei Michkov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (2), Christian Dvorak (1)CAR 1 – 2 PHI · PHI 46% → 66% +19
  4. P34:59Sebastian Aho Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (1), Andrei Svechnikov (3)CAR 2 – 2 PHI · CAR 25% → 53% +27
  5. OT2:51Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (2), Sebastian Aho (1)CAR 3 – 2 PHI · CAR 51% → 97% +46

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Hurricanes 55%

LeanHit
CAR 55%PHI 45%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
CAR 55%
ML CAR -135 / PHI +114
Pre-line forecast
CAR 54%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CAR 55%
Ratings vs. market
−0.4 pts
CAR: Elo 54.8%, market 55.1%
Fair odds
CAR -123
PHI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
CAR 2.9 – 2.6 PHI
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCARPHIWhy
Team rating15731490Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Rest−30—CAR on the second night of a back-to-back
Starting goalies−6−22CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · PHI: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.54 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsCAR +33 EloCAR 54.8%
Market-implied ratingsCAR 54.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCAR 54.2%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCAR 55.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

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Carolina Hurricanes and Philadelphia Flyers compared, with each team's league rank
CARStatPHI
2nd of 323.6Goals scored3.020th of 32
4th of 322.9Goals allowed3.09th of 32
3rd of 32+0.7Margin+0.115th of 32
1st of 3257.3%Shot share50.0%16th of 32
26th of 3288.6%Save percentage89.1%23rd of 32
2nd of 327–3Last 107–32nd of 32
2nd of 3224–17Road vs home20–2121st of 32
19th of 321499Opponent Elo15033rd of 32
1st of 321573Elo rating149020th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

HurricanesFlyers
140014501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

Last season (2025-26)CARPHI
Puck line43–5858–34
Last 105–56–4
Favorite36–5611–16
Underdog7–247–18
Overs–unders52–4944–48
Overs–unders, last 105–52–8

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

CAR 13–2 PHI in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 15.