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Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast

Final/SOESPN+, MSGB

Away

Sabres

3-3-1

3–4

at

Home

Canadiens

3-2-1

BUF 42%MTL 58%

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Bell Centre · ESPN+, MSGB

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.

MTL favored BUF favored6 scoring plays
P1P2P3MTL50%BUF

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Canadiens

Scoring summary

  • SO0:00Zachary Bolduc Goal Backhand1–3
  • SO0:00Alexandre Texier Goal Snap Shot1–3
  • SO0:00Tage Thompson Goal Snap Shot1–3
  • SO0:00Cole Caufield Goal Snap Shot1–3
  • P35:25Olen Zellweger Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (3), Mattias Samuelsson (3)3–3
  • P34:24Josh Norris Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dennis Gilbert (1), Beck Malenstyn (2)2–3
  • P219:10Josh Anderson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (5), Zachary Bolduc (1)1–3
  • P21:19Cole Caufield Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (2), Nick Suzuki (5)1–2
  • P114:28Lane Hutson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (1), Cole Caufield (1)1–1
  • P12:16Olen Zellweger Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (2), Beck Malenstyn (1)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P12:16Olen Zellweger Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (2), Beck Malenstyn (1)BUF 1 – 0 MTL · BUF 42% → 57% +15
  2. P114:28Lane Hutson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (1), Cole Caufield (1)BUF 1 – 1 MTL · MTL 41% → 57% +17
  3. P21:19Cole Caufield Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (2), Nick Suzuki (5)BUF 1 – 2 MTL · MTL 57% → 73% +17
  4. P34:24Josh Norris Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dennis Gilbert (1), Beck Malenstyn (2)BUF 2 – 3 MTL · BUF 6% → 21% +14
  5. P35:25Olen Zellweger Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (3), Mattias Samuelsson (3)BUF 3 – 3 MTL · BUF 20% → 46% +26

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Canadiens 58%

LeanHit
BUF 42%MTL 58%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
MTL 58%
ML BUF +130 / MTL -155
Pre-line forecast
MTL 56%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MTL 59%
Ratings vs. market
+0.5 pts
MTL: Elo 58.8%, market 58.3%
Fair odds
MTL -140
BUF +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
BUF 3.0 – 3.5 MTL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorBUFMTLWhy
Team rating15321520Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Rest−30—BUF on the second night of a back-to-back
Starting goalies−2+6BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · MTL: Jacob Fowler: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsMTL +61 EloMTL 58.8%
Market-implied ratingsMTL 55.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMTL 56.0%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastMTL 58.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

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Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens compared, with each team's league rank
BUFStatMTL
23rd of 322.7Goals scored3.019th of 32
24th of 323.7Goals allowed3.826th of 32
24th of 32−1.0Margin−0.822nd of 32
5th of 3256.0%Shot share48.4%21st of 32
31st of 3283.6%Save percentage88.4%22nd of 32
25th of 320–1Road vs home1–224th of 32
17th of 321501Opponent Elo150515th of 32
8th of 321532Elo rating152011th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

SabresCanadiens
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonBUFMTL
Puck line2–41–4
Last 102–41–4
Favorite1–20–3
Underdog1–21–1
Overs–unders3–33–2
Overs–unders, last 103–33–2

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

BUF 7–12 MTL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 19.