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Carolina Hurricanes at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, CARNHL

Away

Hurricanes

2-1-1

6–4

at

Home

Canadiens

1-1-1

CAR 54%MTL 46%

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Bell Centre · ESPN+, CARNHL

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.

MTL favored CAR favored10 scoring plays
P1P2P3MTL50%CAR

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Hurricanes
Canadiens

Scoring summary

  • P318:45Andrei Svechnikov Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (3), Jaccob Slavin (2)6–4
  • P316:57Juraj Slafkovský Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (3), Nick Suzuki (4)5–4
  • P312:21Taylor Hall Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jaccob Slavin (1), Sebastian Aho (2)5–3
  • P213:24Mark Jankowski Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Eric Robinson (1)4–3
  • P23:56Sebastian Aho Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (2), Shayne Gostisbehere (1)3–3
  • P112:54Zachary Bolduc Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (1), Alexandre Texier (2)2–3
  • P19:22Eric Robinson Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Jalen Chatfield (1), Mark Jankowski (1)2–2
  • P14:27Nick Suzuki Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (2), Lane Hutson (4)1–2
  • P13:23Zachary Bolduc Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Phillip Danault (1), Alexandre Texier (1)1–1
  • P12:25Taylor Hall Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Jackson Blake (3)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P14:27Nick Suzuki Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (2), Lane Hutson (4)CAR 1 – 2 MTL · MTL 46% → 61% +15
  2. P19:22Eric Robinson Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Jalen Chatfield (1), Mark Jankowski (1)CAR 2 – 2 MTL · CAR 38% → 54% +16
  3. P112:54Zachary Bolduc Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (1), Alexandre Texier (2)CAR 2 – 3 MTL · MTL 46% → 62% +16
  4. P23:56Sebastian Aho Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (2), Shayne Gostisbehere (1)CAR 3 – 3 MTL · CAR 35% → 53% +18
  5. P213:24Mark Jankowski Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Eric Robinson (1)CAR 4 – 3 MTL · CAR 53% → 73% +20

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Hurricanes 54%

Toss-upHit
CAR 54%MTL 46%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
CAR 54%
ML CAR -130 / MTL +110
Pre-line forecast
CAR 49%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CAR 53%
Ratings vs. market
−1.4 pts
CAR: Elo 52.9%, market 54.3%
Fair odds
CAR -119
MTL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
CAR 3.4 – 3.1 MTL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCARMTLWhy
Team rating15751528Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+4−5CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsCAR +20 EloCAR 52.9%
Market-implied ratingsMTL 51.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMTL 50.8%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCAR 54.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Carolina Hurricanes and Montreal Canadiens compared, with each team's league rank
CARStatMTL
2nd of 323.6Goals scored3.56th of 32
4th of 322.9Goals allowed3.118th of 32
3rd of 32+0.7Margin+0.39th of 32
1st of 3257.3%Shot share48.6%22nd of 32
26th of 3288.6%Save percentage89.5%18th of 32
2nd of 327–3Last 107–32nd of 32
2nd of 3224–17Road vs home24–178th of 32
21st of 321499Opponent Elo150211th of 32
1st of 321575Elo rating15289th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

HurricanesCanadiens
14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

Last season (2025-26)CARMTL
Puck line43–5858–43
Last 105–56–4
Favorite36–5611–36
Underdog7–247–7
Overs–unders52–4954–47
Overs–unders, last 105–55–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

CAR 8–6 MTL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.