Nashville Predators at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Adam EdstromGoals2
- Roman JosiAssists2
- Adam EdstromPoints2
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Josh AndersonAssists1
- Nick SuzukiPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:34Adam Edstrom Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (4), Jack Drury (1)5–2
- P317:23Adam Edstrom Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (2), Alexander Kerfoot (2)4–2
- P316:44Ryan O'Reilly Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (3), Steven Stamkos (3)3–2
- P219:28Matthew Wood Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (2), Filip Forsberg (4)2–2
- P215:06Alexander Kerfoot Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Adam Wilsby (2), Ross Colton (1)1–2
- P28:50Alex Newhook Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (2)0–2
- P23:12Nick Suzuki Goal (3) Backhand, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:12Nick Suzuki Goal (3) Backhand, assists: noneNSH 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 58% → 75% +17MTL 58% → 75%+17 pts
- P28:50Alex Newhook Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (2)NSH 0 – 2 MTL · MTL 75% → 88% +13MTL 75% → 88%+13 pts
- P215:06Alexander Kerfoot Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Adam Wilsby (2), Ross Colton (1)NSH 1 – 2 MTL · NSH 10% → 23% +14NSH 10% → 23%+14 pts
- P219:28Matthew Wood Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (2), Filip Forsberg (4)NSH 2 – 2 MTL · NSH 22% → 44% +22NSH 22% → 44%+22 pts
- P316:44Ryan O'Reilly Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (3), Steven Stamkos (3)NSH 3 – 2 MTL · NSH 48% → 93% +46NSH 48% → 93%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 60%
- ML NSH +140 / MTL -166
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- MTL: Elo 62.6%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- MTL -150
- NSH +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.5 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +5 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · MTL: Jacob Fowler: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +90 Elo | MTL 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 62.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.3 | Goals scored | 4.07th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 4.730th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.725th of 32 |
| 30th of 3242.3% | Shot share | 43.1%28th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 85.6%26th of 32 |
| 18th of 290–1 | Road vs home | 0–125th of 29 |
| 9th of 321511 | Opponent Elo | 15186th of 32 |
| 25th of 321476 | Elo rating | 152510th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  NSH |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 46–36 | 58–43 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–16 | 11–36 |
| Underdog | 39–20 | 47–7 |
| Overs–unders | 37–45 | 54–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 1–5 MTL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.