Detroit Red Wings at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors MTL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings
CanadiensScoring summary
- SO0:00Zachary Bolduc Goal Snap Shot0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 63%
- ML DET +160 / MTL -192
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- MTL: Elo 66.5%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- MTL -171
- DET +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.9 – 3.6 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −13 | +1 | DET: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · MTL: Jacob Fowler: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +119 Elo | MTL 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 67.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 66.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.59th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 4.829th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−1.0 | Margin | −1.327th of 32 |
| 6th of 3258.0% | Shot share | 47.9%22nd of 32 |
| 26th of 3286.5% | Save percentage | 85.2%28th of 32 |
| 21st of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 150914th of 32 |
| 24th of 321478 | Elo rating | 151911th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  DET |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–41 | 58–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–30 | 11–36 |
| Underdog | 32–11 | 47–7 |
| Overs–unders | 42–40 | 54–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 6–5 MTL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 11.