Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- William EklundGoals1
- William EklundAssists1
- Drake BathersonPoints2
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals2
- Lucas RaymondAssists3
- Alex DeBrincatPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:10Alex DeBrincat Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (3), Justin Faulk (1)3–5
- P310:30William Eklund Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (2), Tim Stützle (3)3–4
- P26:08Drake Batherson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (1), Carter Yakemchuk (1)2–4
- P24:30Justin Faulk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: William Wallinder (1), Lucas Raymond (2)1–4
- P22:01Viktor Arvidsson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (1), Lucas Raymond (1)1–3
- P113:14Dylan Larkin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (1), Alex DeBrincat (2)1–2
- P13:16Alex DeBrincat Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nate Danielson (1), Carter Mazur (1)1–1
- P12:44Tim Stützle Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (1), Ridly Greig (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:44Tim Stützle Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (1), Ridly Greig (1)OTT 1 – 0 DET · OTT 46% → 61% +15OTT 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P13:16Alex DeBrincat Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nate Danielson (1), Carter Mazur (1)OTT 1 – 1 DET · DET 39% → 54% +15DET 39% → 54%+15 pts
- P113:14Dylan Larkin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (1), Alex DeBrincat (2)OTT 1 – 2 DET · DET 54% → 69% +16DET 54% → 69%+16 pts
- P22:01Viktor Arvidsson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (1), Lucas Raymond (1)OTT 1 – 3 DET · DET 71% → 84% +14DET 71% → 84%+14 pts
- P310:30William Eklund Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (2), Tim Stützle (3)OTT 3 – 4 DET · OTT 3% → 17% +14OTT 3% → 17%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 54%
- ML OTT +110 / DET -130
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- DET: Elo 54.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -119
- OTT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.1 – 3.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −16 | −2 | OTT: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.41 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +31 Elo | DET 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 4th of 3254.2% | Shot share | 50.4%14th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 89.5%17th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 32 |
| 10th of 3221–20 | Road vs home | 21–2017th of 32 |
| 15th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15035th of 32 |
| 8th of 321529 | Elo rating | 148024th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  OTT |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–45 | 41–41 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–37 | 9–30 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 32–11 |
| Overs–unders | 44–42 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 7–5 DET in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 12.