Seattle Kraken at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Frederick GaudreauGoals2
- Ben MeyersAssists2
- Ben MeyersPoints3
Red Wings- Michael Brandsegg-NygardGoals1
- Michael Brandsegg-NygardAssists1
- Michael Brandsegg-NygardPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:27Michael Brandsegg-Nygård Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none6–3
- P311:53Vince Dunn Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (4), Brandon Montour (4)6–2
- P214:05Ben Meyers Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Berkly Catton (2), Brandon Montour (3)5–2
- P27:44Freddy Gaudreau Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Winterton (3), Ben Meyers (2)4–2
- P26:59Mackie Samoskevich Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (5)3–2
- P24:39Freddy Gaudreau Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Winterton (2), Ben Meyers (1)2–2
- P24:00William Wallinder Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (3), Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (2)1–2
- P114:52Berkly Catton Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Kaapo Kakko (4), Josh Mahura (1)1–1
- P19:19Viktor Arvidsson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (4), Moritz Seider (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:52Berkly Catton Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Kaapo Kakko (4), Josh Mahura (1)SEA 1 – 1 DET · SEA 27% → 43% +15SEA 27% → 43%+15 pts
- P24:00William Wallinder Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (3), Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (2)SEA 1 – 2 DET · DET 56% → 74% +17DET 56% → 74%+17 pts
- P24:39Freddy Gaudreau Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Winterton (2), Ben Meyers (1)SEA 2 – 2 DET · SEA 26% → 44% +17SEA 26% → 44%+17 pts
- P26:59Mackie Samoskevich Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (5)SEA 3 – 2 DET · SEA 44% → 63% +19SEA 44% → 63%+19 pts
- P27:44Freddy Gaudreau Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Winterton (3), Ben Meyers (2)SEA 4 – 2 DET · SEA 63% → 80% +17SEA 63% → 80%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DET 58%
- ML SEA +130 / DET -155
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- DET: Elo 58.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -140
- SEA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.5 – 3.0 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −2 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +60 Elo | DET 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.8 | Goals scored | 2.326th of 32 |
| 13th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.711th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+1.0 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 18th of 3248.6% | Shot share | 56.3%7th of 32 |
| 11th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 90.3%14th of 32 |
| 7th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 1–224th of 31 |
| 25th of 321487 | Opponent Elo | 150715th of 32 |
| 28th of 321464 | Elo rating | 148421st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  SEA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 47–35 | 41–41 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 9–30 |
| Underdog | 41–28 | 32–11 |
| Overs–unders | 36–46 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–5 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.