Florida Panthers at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Brady TkachukGoals3
- Matthew TkachukAssists5
- Matthew TkachukPoints5
Blue Jackets- Kent JohnsonGoals1
- Damon SeversonAssists2
- Damon SeversonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:43Sam Reinhart Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (2), Seth Jones (6)7–3
- P314:09Cole Sillinger Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (5), Damon Severson (3)6–3
- P313:47Denton Mateychuk Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Damon Severson (2), Valeri Nichushkin (2)6–2
- P33:28Carter Verhaeghe Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (4), Seth Jones (5)6–1
- P31:20Sam Reinhart Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (7), Seth Jones (4)5–1
- P217:50Carter Verhaeghe Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (2), Matthew Tkachuk (6)4–1
- P210:30Brady Tkachuk Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (1), Matthew Tkachuk (5)3–1
- P26:00Brady Tkachuk Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (4), Seth Jones (3)2–1
- P22:27Brady Tkachuk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (3)1–1
- P114:11Kent Johnson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:11Kent Johnson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneFLA 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 54% → 70% +16CBJ 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P22:27Brady Tkachuk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (3)FLA 1 – 1 CBJ · FLA 29% → 47% +17FLA 29% → 47%+17 pts
- P26:00Brady Tkachuk Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (4), Seth Jones (3)FLA 2 – 1 CBJ · FLA 47% → 66% +19FLA 47% → 66%+19 pts
- P210:30Brady Tkachuk Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (1), Matthew Tkachuk (5)FLA 3 – 1 CBJ · FLA 67% → 83% +16FLA 67% → 83%+16 pts
- P217:50Carter Verhaeghe Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (2), Matthew Tkachuk (6)FLA 4 – 1 CBJ · FLA 87% → 96% +9FLA 87% → 96%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 54%
- ML FLA +110 / CBJ -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- CBJ: Elo 57.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -119
- FLA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.6 – 2.9 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | FLA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −13 | FLA: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · CBJ: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +52 Elo | CBJ 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.0 | Goals scored | 3.314th of 32 |
| 14th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.524th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.8 | Margin | −0.319th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.8% | Shot share | 51.4%13th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 87.6%23rd of 32 |
| 18th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 2–18th of 32 |
| 10th of 321511 | Opponent Elo | 15139th of 32 |
| 17th of 321500 | Elo rating | 150016th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  FLA |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–52 | 42–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 9–40 | 10–24 |
| Underdog | 21–12 | 32–16 |
| Overs–unders | 47–35 | 39–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 8–1 CBJ in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.