Columbus Blue Jackets at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Valeri NichushkinGoals1
- Erik GudbransonAssists1
- Valeri NichushkinPoints1
Blues- Jimmy SnuggerudGoals2
- Dylan HollowayAssists3
- Dylan HollowayPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:17Pavel Buchnevich Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–5
- P39:33Jonatan Berggren Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (2), Colton Parayko (2)3–4
- P36:51Cole Sillinger Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (4), Carson Soucy (1)3–3
- P212:32Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (1), Dylan Holloway (3)2–3
- P29:02Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Philip Broberg (3), Dylan Holloway (2)2–2
- P26:10Jake Neighbours Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Justin Barron (1), Dylan Holloway (1)2–1
- P119:48Kent Johnson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (1), Zach Werenski (4)2–0
- P116:10Valeri Nichushkin Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Sean Monahan (1), Erik Gudbranson (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:10Valeri Nichushkin Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Sean Monahan (1), Erik Gudbranson (1)CBJ 1 – 0 STL · CBJ 49% → 66% +17CBJ 49% → 66%+17 pts
- P29:02Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Philip Broberg (3), Dylan Holloway (2)CBJ 2 – 2 STL · STL 31% → 51% +20STL 31% → 51%+20 pts
- P212:32Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (1), Dylan Holloway (3)CBJ 2 – 3 STL · STL 51% → 71% +20STL 51% → 71%+20 pts
- P36:51Cole Sillinger Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (4), Carson Soucy (1)CBJ 3 – 3 STL · CBJ 21% → 49% +28CBJ 21% → 49%+28 pts
- P39:33Jonatan Berggren Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (2), Colton Parayko (2)CBJ 3 – 4 STL · STL 50% → 81% +31STL 50% → 81%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML CBJ -105 / STL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- STL: Elo 56.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- CBJ +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.7 – 2.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −11 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +44 Elo | STL 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 59.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.328th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 32 |
| 17th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −1.023rd of 32 |
| 11th of 3253.0% | Shot share | 48.6%18th of 32 |
| 20th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 89.7%15th of 32 |
| 5th of 321515 | Opponent Elo | 149620th of 32 |
| 14th of 321503 | Elo rating | 149817th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  CBJ |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–40 | 47–35 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–24 | 8–23 |
| Underdog | 32–16 | 39–12 |
| Overs–unders | 39–43 | 39–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 6–0 STL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.