San Jose Sharks at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Tyler ToffoliGoals1
- Tyler ToffoliAssists1
- Tyler ToffoliPoints2
Blues- Dillon DubeGoals1
- Jonatan BerggrenAssists1
- Dillon DubePoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:03Darnell Nurse Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivar Stenberg (2), Alexander Wennberg (1)3–2
- P36:05Collin Graf Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Dickinson (1), Tyler Toffoli (2)2–2
- P31:39Dillon Dube Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P28:48Tyler Toffoli Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Misa (2), Jacob Trouba (2)1–1
- P13:52Connor McMichael Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Mason McTavish (1), Jonatan Berggren (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:52Connor McMichael Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Mason McTavish (1), Jonatan Berggren (1)SJ 0 – 1 STL · STL 59% → 73% +14STL 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P28:48Tyler Toffoli Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Misa (2), Jacob Trouba (2)SJ 1 – 1 STL · SJ 25% → 43% +18SJ 25% → 43%+18 pts
- P31:39Dillon Dube Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSJ 1 – 2 STL · STL 55% → 79% +23STL 55% → 79%+23 pts
- P36:05Collin Graf Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Dickinson (1), Tyler Toffoli (2)SJ 2 – 2 STL · SJ 19% → 45% +26SJ 19% → 45%+26 pts
- OT1:03Darnell Nurse Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivar Stenberg (2), Alexander Wennberg (1)SJ 3 – 2 STL · SJ 48% → 91% +44SJ 48% → 91%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- STL 59%
- ML SJ +136 / STL -162
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- STL: Elo 60.6%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -146
- SJ +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.5 – 3.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +17 | +7 | SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.42 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +75 Elo | STL 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 60.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.326th of 32 |
| 25th of 324.0 | Goals allowed | 3.320th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−1.0 | Margin | −1.024th of 32 |
| 27th of 3244.6% | Shot share | 48.4%19th of 32 |
| 25th of 3286.2% | Save percentage | 90.0%15th of 32 |
| 18th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 150914th of 32 |
| 29th of 321451 | Elo rating | 150117th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  SJ |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 49–33 | 47–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 8–23 |
| Underdog | 46–24 | 39–12 |
| Overs–unders | 42–40 | 39–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 5–4 STL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.