St. Louis Blues at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Connor McMichaelGoals1
- Connor McMichaelAssists1
- Connor McMichaelPoints2
Blackhawks- Anton FrondellGoals1
- Anton FrondellAssists1
- Frank NazarPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:56Frank Nazar Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (1), Anton Frondell (3)2–4
- P319:21Connor McMichael Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (2), Pavel Buchnevich (1)2–3
- P318:51Cole Smith Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–3
- P27:40Anton Frondell Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Artyom Levshunov (1), Teuvo Teravainen (2)1–2
- P25:40Sam Rinzel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (1), Nick Lardis (2)1–1
- P115:38Mason McTavish Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:38Mason McTavish Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (2)STL 1 – 0 CHI · STL 56% → 72% +16STL 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P25:40Sam Rinzel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (1), Nick Lardis (2)STL 1 – 1 CHI · CHI 27% → 45% +18CHI 27% → 45%+18 pts
- P27:40Anton Frondell Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Artyom Levshunov (1), Teuvo Teravainen (2)STL 1 – 2 CHI · CHI 45% → 64% +20CHI 45% → 64%+20 pts
- P318:51Cole Smith Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSTL 1 – 3 CHI · CHI >99% → >99% +0CHI >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P319:21Connor McMichael Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (2), Pavel Buchnevich (1)STL 2 – 3 CHI · STL <1% → <1% +0STL <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- STL 57%
- ML STL -148 / CHI +124
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- STL: Elo 58.4%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -134
- CHI +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 2.5 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +2 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +59 Elo | STL 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.831st of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.8% | Shot share | 45.1%31st of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 89.6%16th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 32 |
| 24th of 3217–24 | Road vs home | 14–2730th of 32 |
| 27th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 32 |
| 15th of 321505 | Elo rating | 141832nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  STL |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 47–35 | 50–32 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–23 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 39–12 | 50–29 |
| Overs–unders | 39–43 | 36–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 8–3 CHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.