New York Rangers at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors CBJ.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers
Blue Jackets- Kent JohnsonGoals1
- Charlie CoyleAssists1
- Kent JohnsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT3:26Kent Johnson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (5), Charlie Coyle (6)0–1
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- OT3:26Kent Johnson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (5), Charlie Coyle (6)NYR 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 51% → 99% +48CBJ 51% → 99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 55%
- ML NYR +114 / CBJ -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- CBJ: Elo 54.6%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -123
- NYR +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.1 – 3.4 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +4 | NYR: Dylan Garand: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +32 Elo | CBJ 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 4.229th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −1.027th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3247.8% | Shot share | 50.9%14th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 85.6%30th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321–3 | Road vs home | 2–216th of 32 |
| 16th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15139th of 32 |
| 17th of 321496 | Elo rating | 149418th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–3 | 1–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 1–4 |
| Favorite | 3–0 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 6–5 CBJ in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.