New York Rangers at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Alexis LafreniereGoals1
- J.T. MillerAssists1
- Alexis LafrenierePoints1
Capitals- Boone JennerGoals1
- Vincent DesharnaisAssists1
- Boone JennerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:59Tom Wilson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Desharnais (1)1–3
- P217:38Boone Jenner Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none1–2
- P26:08Timothy Liljegren Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (4), Ryan Leonard (1)1–1
- P110:17Alexis Lafrenière Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (2), Pavel Dorofeyev (2)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:17Alexis Lafrenière Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (2), Pavel Dorofeyev (2)NYR 1 – 0 WSH · NYR 44% → 60% +16NYR 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P26:08Timothy Liljegren Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (4), Ryan Leonard (1)NYR 1 – 1 WSH · WSH 36% → 55% +19WSH 36% → 55%+19 pts
- P217:38Boone Jenner Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneNYR 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 54% → 76% +22WSH 54% → 76%+22 pts
- P319:59Tom Wilson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Desharnais (1)NYR 1 – 3 WSH · WSH 100% → 100% +0WSH 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 56%
- ML NYR +120 / WSH -142
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 59.4%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -129
- NYR +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.6 – 2.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +6 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +66 Elo | WSH 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 58.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.77th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321.6 | Goals allowed | 2.711th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.6 | Margin | +1.07th of 32 |
| 15th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 44.6%27th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3294.0% | Save percentage | 92.4%7th of 32 |
| 7th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 31 |
| 17th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 15451st of 32 |
| 18th of 321498 | Elo rating | 15288th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  NYR |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–40 | 45–37 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 9–23 | 24–28 |
| Underdog | 33–17 | 21–9 |
| Overs–unders | 37–45 | 37–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 8–7 WSH in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.