New York Islanders at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Calum RitchieGoals1
- Brayden SchennAssists2
- Brayden SchennPoints2
Rangers- Alexis LafreniereGoals3
- Mika ZibanejadAssists2
- Alexis LafrenierePoints4
Scoring summary
- P318:54Alexis Lafrenière Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (5), Vladislav Gavrikov (3)2–5
- P318:22Alexis Lafrenière Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (1), Mika Zibanejad (4)2–4
- P217:07Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabe Perreault (2), Will Cuylle (3)2–3
- P24:52Calum Ritchie Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (3)2–2
- P22:56Bo Horvat Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (1), Brayden Schenn (2)1–2
- P20:25Alexis Lafrenière Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (3), Vladislav Gavrikov (2)0–2
- P16:40Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (2), Sean Durzi (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:40Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (2), Sean Durzi (1)NYI 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 59% → 73% +14NYR 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P20:25Alexis Lafrenière Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (3), Vladislav Gavrikov (2)NYI 0 – 2 NYR · NYR 74% → 86% +12NYR 74% → 86%+12 pts
- P22:56Bo Horvat Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (1), Brayden Schenn (2)NYI 1 – 2 NYR · NYI 13% → 26% +13NYI 13% → 26%+13 pts
- P24:52Calum Ritchie Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (3)NYI 2 – 2 NYR · NYI 26% → 43% +17NYI 26% → 43%+17 pts
- P217:07Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabe Perreault (2), Will Cuylle (3)NYI 2 – 3 NYR · NYR 56% → 77% +21NYR 56% → 77%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 59%
- ML NYI +136 / NYR -162
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- NYR: Elo 58.3%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- NYR -146
- NYI +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.5 – 3.0 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +5 | NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +58 Elo | NYR 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 57.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 7th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 46.6%27th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 90.4%4th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 10th of 3221–20 | Road vs home | 14–2730th of 32 |
| 9th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 15035th of 32 |
| 20th of 321485 | Elo rating | 149418th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  NYI |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–40 | 42–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–27 | 9–23 |
| Underdog | 36–13 | 33–17 |
| Overs–unders | 39–43 | 37–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 5–7 NYR in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.