Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Zemgus GirgensonsGoals1
- Pontus HolmbergAssists1
- Zemgus GirgensonsPoints1
Rangers- Alexis LafreniereGoals2
- Marcus PetterssonAssists2
- Alexis LafrenierePoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:16Mika Zibanejad Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (8), Marcus Pettersson (2)1–4
- P218:26Will Cuylle Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Sean Durzi (2), Marcus Pettersson (1)1–3
- P117:26Zemgus Girgensons Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pontus Holmberg (2), Victor Hedman (2)1–2
- P112:47Alexis Lafrenière Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tye Kartye (4), J.T. Miller (5)0–2
- P11:02Alexis Lafrenière Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Tye Kartye (3), Adam Fox (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:02Alexis Lafrenière Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Tye Kartye (3), Adam Fox (7)TB 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 41% → 55% +15NYR 41% → 55%+15 pts
- P112:47Alexis Lafrenière Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tye Kartye (4), J.T. Miller (5)TB 0 – 2 NYR · NYR 58% → 73% +15NYR 58% → 73%+15 pts
- P117:26Zemgus Girgensons Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pontus Holmberg (2), Victor Hedman (2)TB 1 – 2 NYR · TB 25% → 41% +16TB 25% → 41%+16 pts
- P218:26Will Cuylle Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Sean Durzi (2), Marcus Pettersson (1)TB 1 – 3 NYR · NYR 68% → 86% +18NYR 68% → 86%+18 pts
- P317:16Mika Zibanejad Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (8), Marcus Pettersson (2)TB 1 – 4 NYR · NYR >99% → >99% +0NYR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 59%
- ML TB -162 / NYR +136
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- TB: Elo 50.9%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -146
- NYR +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 2.5 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +19 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · NYR: Dylan Garand: team allows 0.49 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +6 Elo | TB 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 1.93rd of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.8 | Margin | +1.45th of 32 |
| 5th of 3255.9% | Shot share | 49.4%18th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 93.3%2nd of 32 |
| 9th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 32 |
| 17th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149620th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321551 | Elo rating | 149717th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–2 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 3–0 |
| Underdog | — | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 2–3 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–3 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–6 NYR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.