Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Brandon HagelGoals3
- Max CrozierAssists2
- Brandon HagelPoints4
Islanders- Tony DeAngeloGoals1
- Tony DeAngeloAssists1
- Tony DeAngeloPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:37Brandon Hagel Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (1), Nikita Kucherov (7)5–3
- P318:16Brandon Hagel Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Crozier (2), Ryan McDonagh (1)4–3
- P219:53Brayden Schenn Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Bo Horvat (2), Matias Maccelli (3)3–3
- P211:41Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Schaefer (4), Tony DeAngelo (1)3–2
- P27:54Jake Guentzel Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (6), Brandon Hagel (4)3–1
- P26:27Tony DeAngelo Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (1)2–1
- P115:42Brandon Hagel Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (1), Max Crozier (1)2–0
- P15:45Jake Guentzel Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:45Jake Guentzel Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTB 1 – 0 NYI · TB 61% → 75% +14TB 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P27:54Jake Guentzel Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (6), Brandon Hagel (4)TB 3 – 1 NYI · TB 76% → 89% +12TB 76% → 89%+12 pts
- P211:41Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Schaefer (4), Tony DeAngelo (1)TB 3 – 2 NYI · NYI 10% → 23% +13NYI 10% → 23%+13 pts
- P219:53Brayden Schenn Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Bo Horvat (2), Matias Maccelli (3)TB 3 – 3 NYI · NYI 21% → 43% +22NYI 21% → 43%+22 pts
- P318:16Brandon Hagel Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Crozier (2), Ryan McDonagh (1)TB 4 – 3 NYI · TB 52% → 99% +47TB 52% → 99%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 62%
- ML TB -180 / NYI +150
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- TB: Elo 54.8%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- TB -161
- NYI +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.1 – 2.4 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +3 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +33 Elo | TB 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 57.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 2.04th of 32 |
| 16th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +1.35th of 32 |
| 5th of 3256.6% | Shot share | 46.9%26th of 32 |
| 8th of 3291.7% | Save percentage | 94.4%2nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 320–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 11th of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 146830th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321548 | Elo rating | 148422nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  TB |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–51 | 42–40 |
| Last 10 | 0–10 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–50 | 6–27 |
| Underdog | 11–1 | 36–13 |
| Overs–unders | 43–46 | 39–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–5 NYI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.