Chicago Blackhawks at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Frank NazarGoals1
- Sam RinzelAssists1
- Frank NazarPoints1
Islanders- Bo HorvatGoals2
- Logan StanleyAssists2
- Bo HorvatPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:27Bo Horvat Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Stanley (4)1–4
- P317:26Frank Nazar Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (1), Sam Rinzel (1)1–3
- P29:38Anthony Duclair Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Stanley (3), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (2)0–3
- P26:44Emil Heineman Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (2), Adam Pelech (2)0–2
- P119:01Bo Horvat Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Schaefer (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:01Bo Horvat Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Schaefer (3)CHI 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 60% → 76% +16NYI 60% → 76%+16 pts
- P26:44Emil Heineman Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (2), Adam Pelech (2)CHI 0 – 2 NYI · NYI 76% → 89% +12NYI 76% → 89%+12 pts
- P29:38Anthony Duclair Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Stanley (3), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (2)CHI 0 – 3 NYI · NYI 89% → 96% +7NYI 89% → 96%+7 pts
- P317:26Frank Nazar Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (1), Sam Rinzel (1)CHI 1 – 3 NYI · CHI <1% → <1% +0CHI <1% → <1%+0 pts
- P318:27Bo Horvat Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Stanley (4)CHI 1 – 4 NYI · NYI >99% → >99% +0NYI >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 62%
- ML CHI +154 / NYI -185
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- NYI: Elo 65.6%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- NYI -165
- CHI +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.4 – 3.1 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1423 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −17 | +2 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.41 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +112 Elo | NYI 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 61.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.3 | Goals scored | 3.013th of 32 |
| 27th of 324.3 | Goals allowed | 2.37th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−2.0 | Margin | +0.713th of 32 |
| 31st of 3238.3% | Shot share | 47.3%22nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3287.0% | Save percentage | 94.1%2nd of 32 |
| 20th of 290–3 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
| 6th of 321520 | Opponent Elo | 148428th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321423 | Elo rating | 148124th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  CHI |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 50–32 | 42–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 6–27 |
| Underdog | 50–29 | 36–13 |
| Overs–unders | 36–46 | 39–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 3–3 NYI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.