Vancouver Canucks at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Elias N. PetterssonGoals1
- Brendan GallagherAssists1
- Jake DeBruskPoints1
Rangers- Tye KartyeGoals2
- J.T. MillerAssists2
- Tye KartyePoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:22Will Cuylle Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (1), Braden Schneider (1)2–6
- P35:57Gabe Perreault Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (6), Mika Zibanejad (6)2–5
- P31:04Alexis Lafrenière Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabe Perreault (3), Mika Zibanejad (5)2–4
- P218:25Tye Kartye Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (4), Vladislav Gavrikov (4)2–3
- P216:56Elias Pettersson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (1), Drew O'Connor (2)2–2
- P22:09Will Cuylle Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Laba (2)1–2
- P117:04Jake DeBrusk Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Lekkerimaki (3)1–1
- P10:27Tye Kartye Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (3), Alexis Lafrenière (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:04Jake DeBrusk Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Lekkerimaki (3)VAN 1 – 1 NYR · VAN 18% → 32% +13VAN 18% → 32%+13 pts
- P22:09Will Cuylle Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Laba (2)VAN 1 – 2 NYR · NYR 67% → 82% +15NYR 67% → 82%+15 pts
- P216:56Elias Pettersson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (1), Drew O'Connor (2)VAN 2 – 2 NYR · VAN 17% → 36% +19VAN 17% → 36%+19 pts
- P218:25Tye Kartye Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (4), Vladislav Gavrikov (4)VAN 2 – 3 NYR · NYR 63% → 83% +20NYR 63% → 83%+20 pts
- P31:04Alexis Lafrenière Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabe Perreault (3), Mika Zibanejad (5)VAN 2 – 4 NYR · NYR 83% → 95% +11NYR 83% → 95%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 71%
- ML VAN +235 / NYR -290
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- NYR: Elo 72.6%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- NYR -249
- VAN +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.6 – 3.9 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1421 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VAN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +20 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · NYR: Dylan Garand: team allows 0.50 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +169 Elo | NYR 72.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 73.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 73.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.7 | Goals scored | 2.819th of 32 |
| 31st of 324.8 | Goals allowed | 1.83rd of 32 |
| 27th of 32−1.2 | Margin | +1.09th of 32 |
| 30th of 3241.0% | Shot share | 48.6%20th of 32 |
| 30th of 3284.7% | Save percentage | 93.7%2nd of 32 |
| 18th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
| 6th of 321516 | Opponent Elo | 151010th of 32 |
| 31st of 321421 | Elo rating | 149518th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 2–4 NYR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.