Vancouver Canucks at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Linus KarlssonGoals1
- Brock BoeserAssists1
- Linus KarlssonPoints1
Devils- Nico HischierGoals2
- Jack HughesAssists2
- Nico HischierPoints3
Scoring summary
- P219:50Nico Hischier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (3), Jesper Bratt (3)1–4
- P24:36Jesper Bratt Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (1), Jack Hughes (2)1–3
- P116:24Jesper Boqvist Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Amadeus Lombardi (1)1–2
- P18:03Nico Hischier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Arseny Gritsyuk (1), Luke Hughes (1)1–1
- P15:27Linus Karlsson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (3), Jake DeBrusk (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:27Linus Karlsson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (3), Jake DeBrusk (2)VAN 1 – 0 NJ · VAN 29% → 43% +14VAN 29% → 43%+14 pts
- P18:03Nico Hischier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Arseny Gritsyuk (1), Luke Hughes (1)VAN 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 56% → 70% +15NJ 56% → 70%+15 pts
- P116:24Jesper Boqvist Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Amadeus Lombardi (1)VAN 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 69% → 82% +13NJ 69% → 82%+13 pts
- P24:36Jesper Bratt Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (1), Jack Hughes (2)VAN 1 – 3 NJ · NJ 82% → 92% +10NJ 82% → 92%+10 pts
- P219:50Nico Hischier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (3), Jesper Bratt (3)VAN 1 – 4 NJ · NJ 94% → 99% +4NJ 94% → 99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 72%
- ML VAN +240 / NJ -298
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.2 pts
- NJ: Elo 60.6%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- NJ -255
- VAN +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.6 – 3.9 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1425 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +15 | −2 | VAN: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.38 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +75 Elo | NJ 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 63.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 324.2 | Goals scored | 2.028th of 32 |
| 30th of 325.0 | Goals allowed | 4.328th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.8 | Margin | −2.330th of 32 |
| 29th of 3242.0% | Shot share | 56.4%7th of 32 |
| 28th of 3283.7% | Save percentage | 85.2%26th of 32 |
| 8th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 1–115th of 31 |
| 3rd of 321521 | Opponent Elo | 149124th of 32 |
| 31st of 321425 | Elo rating | 148223rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  VAN |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–44 | 32–50 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 11–37 |
| Underdog | 37–35 | 21–13 |
| Overs–unders | 47–35 | 39–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 3–3 NJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.