Vancouver Canucks at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Jake DeBruskGoals2
- Elias PetterssonAssists2
- Jake DeBruskPoints2
Hurricanes- Logan StankovenGoals3
- Sean WalkerAssists4
- Sean WalkerPoints4
Scoring summary
- P313:04Jake DeBrusk Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (6), Zeev Buium (1)2–7
- P311:36Logan Stankoven Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (2), Sean Walker (4)1–7
- P219:02Logan Stankoven Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (1), Sean Walker (3)1–6
- P213:13Logan Stankoven Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (2), Sebastian Aho (4)1–5
- P24:03Jake DeBrusk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Lekkerimaki (2), Elias Pettersson (5)1–4
- P23:20Mark Jankowski Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (1)0–4
- P19:25Andrei Svechnikov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (5), Shayne Gostisbehere (3)0–3
- P17:11Andrei Svechnikov Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (2), Jackson Blake (4)0–2
- P11:18K'Andre Miller Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: William Carrier (3), Sean Walker (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:18K'Andre Miller Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: William Carrier (3), Sean Walker (1)VAN 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 76% → 86% +10CAR 76% → 86%+10 pts
- P17:11Andrei Svechnikov Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (2), Jackson Blake (4)VAN 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 85% → 93% +7CAR 85% → 93%+7 pts
- P19:25Andrei Svechnikov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (5), Shayne Gostisbehere (3)VAN 0 – 3 CAR · CAR 93% → 97% +4CAR 93% → 97%+4 pts
- P23:20Mark Jankowski Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (1)VAN 0 – 4 CAR · CAR 97% → >99% +2CAR 97% → >99%+2 pts
- P24:03Jake DeBrusk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Lekkerimaki (2), Elias Pettersson (5)VAN 1 – 4 CAR · VAN <1% → 2% +2VAN <1% → 2%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 76%
- ML VAN +300 / CAR -380
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- CAR: Elo 74.7%, market 76.0%
- Fair odds
- CAR -317
- VAN +317 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.4 – 4.1 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1427 | 1578 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −5 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +188 Elo | CAR 74.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 76.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 76.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 76.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 324.8 | Goals scored | 2.820th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.5 | Goals allowed | 3.017th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.319th of 32 |
| 27th of 3243.1% | Shot share | 58.7%2nd of 32 |
| 28th of 3285.0% | Save percentage | 85.9%25th of 32 |
| 1st of 291–0 | Road vs home | 0–225th of 29 |
| 15th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 151110th of 32 |
| 31st of 321427 | Elo rating | 15781st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  VAN |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–44 | 43–58 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 36–56 |
| Underdog | 37–35 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 47–35 | 52–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 2–4 CAR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.