New York Rangers at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Pavel DorofeyevGoals1
- Adam FoxAssists1
- Pavel DorofeyevPoints1
Devils- Luke HughesGoals2
- Dougie HamiltonAssists2
- Luke HughesPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:54Cody Glass Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (3), Dougie Hamilton (3)1–7
- P38:02Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (9), Alexis Lafrenière (4)1–6
- P37:01Stefan Noesen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Amadeus Lombardi (3), Evan Rodrigues (2)0–6
- P216:34Luke Hughes Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (2), Amadeus Lombardi (2)0–5
- P24:39Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (7), Dougie Hamilton (2)0–4
- P24:08Nico Hischier Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (3), Dawson Mercer (2)0–3
- P20:18Luke Hughes Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Timo Meier (2), Brett Pesce (1)0–2
- P119:30Evan Rodrigues Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:30Evan Rodrigues Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYR 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 54% → 70% +17NJ 54% → 70%+17 pts
- P20:18Luke Hughes Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Timo Meier (2), Brett Pesce (1)NYR 0 – 2 NJ · NJ 70% → 84% +13NJ 70% → 84%+13 pts
- P24:08Nico Hischier Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (3), Dawson Mercer (2)NYR 0 – 3 NJ · NJ 85% → 93% +9NJ 85% → 93%+9 pts
- P24:39Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (7), Dougie Hamilton (2)NYR 0 – 4 NJ · NJ 93% → 98% +4NJ 93% → 98%+4 pts
- P216:34Luke Hughes Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (2), Amadeus Lombardi (2)NYR 0 – 5 NJ · NJ >99% → >99% +1NJ >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 54%
- ML NYR +110 / NJ -130
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- NJ: Elo 48.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NJ -119
- NYR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.1 – 3.4 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +22 | −3 | NYR: Dylan Garand: team allows 0.55 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · NJ: Nico Daws: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +8 Elo | NYR 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.724th of 32 |
| 1st of 321.8 | Goals allowed | 3.723rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.6 | Margin | −1.023rd of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 58.3%2nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3293.7% | Save percentage | 86.5%26th of 32 |
| 17th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 2–213th of 32 |
| 16th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 148129th of 32 |
| 16th of 321502 | Elo rating | 148420th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–2 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–2 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 3–0 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 6–5 NJ in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.