New Jersey Devils at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Jesper BrattGoals1
- Jesper BrattAssists2
- Jesper BrattPoints3
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals2
- Alex DeBrincatAssists1
- Alex DeBrincatPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT1:19Jack Hughes Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (5)5–4
- P35:46Alex DeBrincat Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (3), Ben Chiarot (1)4–4
- P216:52Jesper Bratt Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jonas Siegenthaler (1), Jack Hughes (6)4–3
- P215:10Alex DeBrincat Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Axel Sandin-Pellikka (1), Justin Faulk (2)3–3
- P210:16Nico Hischier Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jesper Bratt (4), Jack Hughes (5)3–2
- P27:03Anthony Mantha Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (1), Evan Rodrigues (1)2–2
- P21:43Michael Brandsegg-Nygård Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Emmitt Finnie (1), Alex DeBrincat (4)1–2
- P118:35Emmitt Finnie Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (3), Anton Johansson (1)1–1
- P16:07Evan Rodrigues Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (1), Anthony Mantha (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:16Nico Hischier Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jesper Bratt (4), Jack Hughes (5)NJ 3 – 2 DET · NJ 49% → 69% +20NJ 49% → 69%+20 pts
- P215:10Alex DeBrincat Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Axel Sandin-Pellikka (1), Justin Faulk (2)NJ 3 – 3 DET · DET 29% → 51% +22DET 29% → 51%+22 pts
- P216:52Jesper Bratt Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jonas Siegenthaler (1), Jack Hughes (6)NJ 4 – 3 DET · NJ 49% → 72% +22NJ 49% → 72%+22 pts
- P35:46Alex DeBrincat Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (3), Ben Chiarot (1)NJ 4 – 4 DET · DET 23% → 51% +27DET 23% → 51%+27 pts
- OT1:19Jack Hughes Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (5)NJ 5 – 4 DET · NJ 50% → 93% +43NJ 50% → 93%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 51%
- ML NJ -105 / DET -115
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.2 pts
- DET: Elo 58.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -104
- NJ +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.2 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −3 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +58 Elo | DET 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.2 | Goals scored | 2.028th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.017th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−1.4 | Margin | −1.025th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3258.4% | Shot share | 56.4%4th of 32 |
| 26th of 3286.7% | Save percentage | 89.7%15th of 32 |
| 24th of 320–1 | Road vs home | 1–328th of 32 |
| 27th of 321484 | Opponent Elo | 150317th of 32 |
| 21st of 321481 | Elo rating | 147724th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 1–4 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 1–4 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | — | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 5–4 DET in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.