Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Tim StutzleGoals1
- Tim StutzleAssists1
- Tim StutzlePoints2
Devils- Arseny GritsyukGoals1
- Jack HughesAssists1
- Arseny GritsyukPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:53Tyler Kleven Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P314:59Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (4)3–1
- P311:10Tim Stützle Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Chabot (3), Jordan Spence (1)3–0
- P28:40Stephen Halliday Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (5), Dylan Cozens (2)2–0
- P20:09Shane Pinto Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (2), Claude Giroux (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:09Shane Pinto Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (2), Claude Giroux (4)OTT 1 – 0 NJ · OTT 49% → 66% +17OTT 49% → 66%+17 pts
- P28:40Stephen Halliday Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (5), Dylan Cozens (2)OTT 2 – 0 NJ · OTT 68% → 84% +15OTT 68% → 84%+15 pts
- P311:10Tim Stützle Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Chabot (3), Jordan Spence (1)OTT 3 – 0 NJ · OTT 97% → >99% +3OTT 97% → >99%+3 pts
- P314:59Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (4)OTT 3 – 1 NJ · NJ <1% → <1% +1NJ <1% → <1%+1 pts
- P317:53Tyler Kleven Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneOTT 4 – 1 NJ · OTT >99% → >99% +0OTT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 52%
- ML OTT -102 / NJ -118
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- NJ: Elo 47.5%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- NJ -107
- OTT +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.7 – 2.8 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −2 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · NJ: Nico Daws: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +17 Elo | OTT 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.525th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.2 | Goals allowed | 3.524th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −1.025th of 32 |
| 20th of 3248.6% | Shot share | 58.1%3rd of 32 |
| 6th of 3292.3% | Save percentage | 87.2%26th of 32 |
| 7th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 2–18th of 32 |
| 27th of 321484 | Opponent Elo | 147230th of 32 |
| 8th of 321529 | Elo rating | 148621st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  OTT |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–45 | 32–50 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–37 | 11–37 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 21–13 |
| Overs–unders | 44–42 | 39–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 4–5 NJ in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.