Philadelphia Flyers at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Matvei MichkovGoals1
- Travis KonecnyAssists1
- Matvei MichkovPoints1
Senators- Nick CousinsGoals1
- Warren FoegeleAssists1
- Nick CousinsPoints1
Scoring summary
- P313:01Carter Yakemchuk Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (3), Shane Pinto (3)1–2
- P27:46Matvei Michkov Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Trevor Zegras (2), Travis Konecny (3)1–1
- P110:14Nick Cousins Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Kleven (1), Warren Foegele (1)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:14Nick Cousins Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Kleven (1), Warren Foegele (1)PHI 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 61% → 75% +14OTT 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P27:46Matvei Michkov Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Trevor Zegras (2), Travis Konecny (3)PHI 1 – 1 OTT · PHI 24% → 41% +18PHI 24% → 41%+18 pts
- P313:01Carter Yakemchuk Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (3), Shane Pinto (3)PHI 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 54% → 88% +34OTT 54% → 88%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 62%
- ML PHI +150 / OTT -180
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- OTT: Elo 64.4%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- OTT -161
- PHI +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.4 – 3.1 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −19 | +7 | PHI: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.49 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +103 Elo | OTT 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 63.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 321.3 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 32 |
| 26th of 324.3 | Goals allowed | 2.710th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−3.0 | Margin | +0.710th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3232.8% | Shot share | 48.1%20th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 91.6%8th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321528 | Opponent Elo | 148525th of 32 |
| 20th of 321484 | Elo rating | 15259th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  PHI |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 58–34 | 41–45 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 23–37 |
| Underdog | 47–18 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 44–48 | 44–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–7 OTT in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.