Nashville Predators at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Ross ColtonGoals1
- Alexander KerfootAssists1
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints1
Senators- Tim StutzleGoals1
- Tim StutzleAssists1
- Tim StutzlePoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Shane Pinto Goal Snap Shot1–2
- SO0:00Tim Stützle Goal Wrist Shot1–1
- SO0:00Ryan O'Reilly Goal Snap Shot1–1
- P318:37Drake Batherson Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Shane Pinto (4), Tim Stützle (4)2–2
- P29:29Tim Stützle Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (1), Thomas Chabot (2)2–1
- P113:10Jonathan Marchessault Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (4), Roman Josi (5)2–0
- P18:50Ross Colton Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Vitali Pinchuk (1), Alexander Kerfoot (3)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:50Ross Colton Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Vitali Pinchuk (1), Alexander Kerfoot (3)NSH 1 – 0 OTT · NSH 40% → 56% +16NSH 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P113:10Jonathan Marchessault Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (4), Roman Josi (5)NSH 2 – 0 OTT · NSH 57% → 72% +15NSH 57% → 72%+15 pts
- P29:29Tim Stützle Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (1), Thomas Chabot (2)NSH 2 – 1 OTT · OTT 20% → 37% +17OTT 20% → 37%+17 pts
- P318:37Drake Batherson Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Shane Pinto (4), Tim Stützle (4)NSH 2 – 2 OTT · OTT <1% → 52% +51OTT <1% → 52%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 60%
- ML NSH +142 / OTT -170
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- OTT: Elo 58.8%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- OTT -152
- NSH +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.5 – 3.0 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +25 | +8 | NSH: Matt Murray: team allows 0.63 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +62 Elo | OTT 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 60.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.015th of 32 |
| 11th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.36th of 32 |
| 18th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.814th of 32 |
| 29th of 3241.2% | Shot share | 47.9%21st of 32 |
| 9th of 3291.5% | Save percentage | 92.9%6th of 32 |
| 8th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
| 6th of 321515 | Opponent Elo | 148425th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321482 | Elo rating | 15279th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  NSH |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 46–36 | 41–45 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–16 | 23–37 |
| Underdog | 39–20 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 37–45 | 44–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 3–3 OTT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.