Columbus Blue Jackets at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Adam FantilliGoals1
- Sean MonahanAssists1
- Adam FantilliPoints1
Wild- Danila YurovGoals1
- Yakov TreninAssists1
- Kirill KaprizovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P23:06Kirill Kaprizov Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Maxim Shabanov (4), Joel Eriksson Ek (5)1–2
- P119:12Adam Fantilli Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (6), Sean Monahan (2)1–1
- P118:12Danila Yurov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Yakov Trenin (2)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:12Danila Yurov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Yakov Trenin (2)CBJ 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 60% → 76% +15MIN 60% → 76%+15 pts
- P119:12Adam Fantilli Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (6), Sean Monahan (2)CBJ 1 – 1 MIN · CBJ 24% → 40% +16CBJ 24% → 40%+16 pts
- P23:06Kirill Kaprizov Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Maxim Shabanov (4), Joel Eriksson Ek (5)CBJ 1 – 2 MIN · MIN 60% → 76% +16MIN 60% → 76%+16 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Wild 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 62%
- ML CBJ +154 / MIN -185
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 65.6%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -165
- CBJ +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −15 | +2 | CBJ: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −9 | Key absences: Nick Foligno, Nico Sturm |
| Elo ratings | MIN +112 Elo | MIN 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 65.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.57th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.87th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 52.1%12th of 32 |
| 21st of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 90.7%7th of 32 |
| 28th of 320–1 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
| 12th of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 15167th of 32 |
| 16th of 321496 | Elo rating | 15366th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 1–5 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 1–5 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 3–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 2–4 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.