Minnesota Wild at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals2
- Jonas BrodinAssists1
- Kirill KaprizovPoints2
Jets- Cole PerfettiGoals2
- Mark ScheifeleAssists2
- Mark ScheifelePoints3
Scoring summary
- P314:42Cole Koepke Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (1)2–5
- P34:06Kyle Connor Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–4
- P216:36Cole Perfetti Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (3), Mark Scheifele (5)2–3
- P118:38Kirill Kaprizov Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (8), Jonas Brodin (1)2–2
- P117:54Mark Scheifele Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Neal Pionk (3), Kyle Connor (3)1–2
- P18:47Kirill Kaprizov Goal (7) Batted, assists: none1–1
- P11:50Cole Perfetti Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Neal Pionk (2), Mark Scheifele (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:47Kirill Kaprizov Goal (7) Batted, assists: noneMIN 1 – 1 WPG · MIN 35% → 50% +15MIN 35% → 50%+15 pts
- P117:54Mark Scheifele Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Neal Pionk (3), Kyle Connor (3)MIN 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 50% → 67% +17WPG 50% → 67%+17 pts
- P118:38Kirill Kaprizov Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (8), Jonas Brodin (1)MIN 2 – 2 WPG · MIN 33% → 50% +17MIN 33% → 50%+17 pts
- P216:36Cole Perfetti Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (3), Mark Scheifele (5)MIN 2 – 3 WPG · WPG 50% → 72% +22WPG 50% → 72%+22 pts
- P34:06Kyle Connor Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMIN 2 – 4 WPG · WPG 76% → 92% +16WPG 76% → 92%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 50%
- ML MIN -110 / WPG -110
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- WPG: Elo 52.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- WPG -100
- MIN -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.3 – 3.3 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −10 | MIN: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · WPG: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +16 Elo | WPG 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.625th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321.8 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+1.3 | Margin | −0.421st of 32 |
| 13th of 3251.5% | Shot share | 47.0%25th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3293.3% | Save percentage | 90.5%10th of 32 |
| 9th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 1–226th of 32 |
| 6th of 321518 | Opponent Elo | 150812th of 32 |
| 4th of 321538 | Elo rating | 149119th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–1 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–1 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 1–5 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–5 | 1–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–9 WPG in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.