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Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, Scripps Sports, MINNHL

Away

Golden Knights

5-2-0

2–4

at

Home

Wild

4-1-1

VGK 50%MIN 50%

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Grand Casino Arena · ESPN+, Scripps Sports, MINNHL

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.

MIN favored VGK favored6 scoring plays
P1P2P3MIN50%VGK

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Golden Knights

Scoring summary

  • P318:38Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (3)2–4
  • P39:25William Karlsson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Howden (2), Mitch Marner (4)2–3
  • P22:37Rasmus Andersson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (3), Raphael Lavoie (1)1–3
  • P116:57Danila Yurov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (4), Rieger Lorenz (1)0–3
  • P114:32Maxim Shabanov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (7)0–2
  • P111:50Matt Boldy Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Olli Maatta (2), Quinn Hughes (6)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P111:50Matt Boldy Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Olli Maatta (2), Quinn Hughes (6)VGK 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 50% → 66% +16
  2. P114:32Maxim Shabanov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (7)VGK 0 – 2 MIN · MIN 67% → 80% +14
  3. P116:57Danila Yurov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (4), Rieger Lorenz (1)VGK 0 – 3 MIN · MIN 81% → 90% +10
  4. P22:37Rasmus Andersson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (3), Raphael Lavoie (1)VGK 1 – 3 MIN · VGK 8% → 18% +9
  5. P39:25William Karlsson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Howden (2), Mitch Marner (4)VGK 2 – 3 MIN · VGK 4% → 19% +15

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Wild 50%

Toss-upHit
VGK 50%MIN 50%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
MIN 50%
ML VGK -108 / MIN -112
Pre-line forecast
MIN 53%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIN 55%
Ratings vs. market
+4.1 pts
MIN: Elo 54.5%, market 50.4%
Fair odds
MIN -102
VGK +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
VGK 2.7 – 2.8 MIN
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorVGKMINWhy
Team rating15391535Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+2+2VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsMIN +31 EloMIN 54.5%
Market-implied ratingsMIN 52.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIN 52.9%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastMIN 50.4%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

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Vegas Golden Knights and Minnesota Wild compared, with each team's league rank
VGKStatMIN
5th of 323.8Goals scored3.018th of 32
6th of 322.3Goals allowed1.82nd of 32
3rd of 32+1.5Margin+1.27th of 32
4th of 3257.9%Shot share50.9%13th of 32
14th of 3290.3%Save percentage93.6%2nd of 32
1st of 322–0Road vs home1–01st of 32
31st of 321458Opponent Elo15156th of 32
4th of 321539Elo rating15356th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Golden KnightsWild
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonVGKMIN
Puck line2–44–1
Last 102–44–1
Favorite2–42–1
Underdog—2–0
Overs–unders4–20–5
Overs–unders, last 104–20–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

VGK 9–6 MIN in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.