Los Angeles Kings at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Adrian KempeAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints1
Golden Knights- Mitch MarnerGoals1
- Mark StoneAssists2
- Mitch MarnerPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:40Mitch Marner Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (4), Trevor Connelly (2)1–2
- P26:21Artemi Panarin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (2), Brandt Clarke (3)1–1
- P22:37Trevor Connelly Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (3), Mitch Marner (3)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:37Trevor Connelly Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (3), Mitch Marner (3)LA 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 58% → 75% +17VGK 58% → 75%+17 pts
- P26:21Artemi Panarin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (2), Brandt Clarke (3)LA 1 – 1 VGK · LA 25% → 42% +18LA 25% → 42%+18 pts
- OT2:40Mitch Marner Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (4), Trevor Connelly (2)LA 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 52% → 97% +45VGK 52% → 97%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 60%
- ML LA +142 / VGK -170
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- VGK: Elo 64.9%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- VGK -152
- LA +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 3.5 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | 0 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +107 Elo | VGK 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 63.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 4.23rd of 32 |
| 31st of 325.0 | Goals allowed | 2.610th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−2.0 | Margin | +1.62nd of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.9% | Shot share | 58.7%2nd of 32 |
| 31st of 3282.1% | Save percentage | 88.9%19th of 32 |
| 24th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 2–18th of 32 |
| 13th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 145431st of 32 |
| 27th of 321472 | Elo rating | 15374th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  LA |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–54 | 46–58 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–41 | 23–53 |
| Underdog | 21–13 | 23–5 |
| Overs–unders | 40–46 | 52–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 5–6 VGK in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.