Anaheim Ducks at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Mikael GranlundGoals1
- Beckett SenneckeAssists2
- Mikael GranlundPoints2
Jets- Kyle ConnorGoals1
- Dylan DeMeloAssists1
- Kyle ConnorPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:19Nikita Nesterenko Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (3), Mikael Granlund (3)5–1
- P314:06Mikael Granlund Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Warren (2), Jackson LaCombe (4)4–1
- P310:36Kyle Connor Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (3), Dylan DeMelo (2)3–1
- P34:25Sam Colangelo Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (2)3–0
- P25:20Tim Washe Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jeff Malott (2), Judd Caulfield (1)2–0
- P114:41Judd Caulfield Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jeff Malott (1), Tim Washe (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:41Judd Caulfield Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jeff Malott (1), Tim Washe (2)ANA 1 – 0 WPG · ANA 48% → 65% +16ANA 48% → 65%+16 pts
- P25:20Tim Washe Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jeff Malott (2), Judd Caulfield (1)ANA 2 – 0 WPG · ANA 67% → 82% +15ANA 67% → 82%+15 pts
- P34:25Sam Colangelo Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (2)ANA 3 – 0 WPG · ANA 92% → 98% +6ANA 92% → 98%+6 pts
- P310:36Kyle Connor Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (3), Dylan DeMelo (2)ANA 3 – 1 WPG · WPG <1% → 3% +3WPG <1% → 3%+3 pts
- P314:06Mikael Granlund Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Warren (2), Jackson LaCombe (4)ANA 4 – 1 WPG · ANA 99% → >99% +1ANA 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 52%
- ML ANA +100 / WPG -120
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.6 pts
- WPG: Elo 58.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- WPG -109
- ANA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.2 – 3.3 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +8 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · WPG: Clay Stevenson: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +61 Elo | WPG 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.013th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.510th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.515th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3247.0% | Shot share | 46.5%25th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3287.5% | Save percentage | 92.4%8th of 32 |
| 1st of 301–0 | Road vs home | 1–115th of 31 |
| 3rd of 321522 | Opponent Elo | 15156th of 32 |
| 25th of 321478 | Elo rating | 149718th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  ANA |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–51 | 37–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–29 | 12–34 |
| Underdog | 37–22 | 25–11 |
| Overs–unders | 54–40 | 44–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 5–4 WPG in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.