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Edmonton Oilers at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, KCOP, Prime Video (Local)

Away

Oilers

3-0-1

5–2

at

Home

Ducks

2-1-0

EDM 55%ANA 45%

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Honda Center · ESPN+, KCOP, Prime Video (Local)

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.

ANA favored EDM favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3ANA50%EDM

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Scoring summary

  • P219:08Connor McDavid Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (6), Mattias Ekholm (1)5–2
  • P216:49Vasily Podkolzin Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (5)4–2
  • P214:12Evan Bouchard Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (4), Connor McDavid (9)3–2
  • P26:30Kasperi Kapanen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (8), Evan Bouchard (5)2–2
  • P20:11Evan Bouchard Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (3)1–2
  • P115:28Beckett Sennecke Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Leo Carlsson (6), Jackson LaCombe (3)0–2
  • P14:11Beckett Sennecke Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (2), Leo Carlsson (5)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P14:11Beckett Sennecke Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (2), Leo Carlsson (5)EDM 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 45% → 60% +15
  2. P20:11Evan Bouchard Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (3)EDM 1 – 2 ANA · EDM 21% → 37% +15
  3. P26:30Kasperi Kapanen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (8), Evan Bouchard (5)EDM 2 – 2 ANA · EDM 35% → 54% +19
  4. P214:12Evan Bouchard Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (4), Connor McDavid (9)EDM 3 – 2 ANA · EDM 53% → 74% +21
  5. P216:49Vasily Podkolzin Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (5)EDM 4 – 2 ANA · EDM 75% → 90% +15

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Oilers 55%

LeanHit
EDM 55%ANA 45%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
EDM 55%
ML EDM -135 / ANA +114
Pre-line forecast
EDM 52%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
EDM 47%
Ratings vs. market
−8.2 pts
EDM: Elo 46.9%, market 55.1%
Fair odds
EDM -123
ANA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
EDM 3.4 – 3.1 ANA
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorEDMANAWhy
Team rating15151483Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−17+1EDM: Devon Levi: team allows 0.43 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsANA +21 EloANA 53.1%
Market-implied ratingsEDM 53.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastEDM 51.8%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastEDM 55.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Edmonton Oilers and Anaheim Ducks compared, with each team's league rank
EDMStatANA
7th of 323.4Goals scored3.310th of 32
25th of 323.3Goals allowed3.529th of 32
14th of 32+0.2Margin−0.219th of 32
5th of 3252.7%Shot share52.1%6th of 32
29th of 3288.3%Save percentage88.3%30th of 32
8th of 326–4Last 102–827th of 32
18th of 3219–22Road vs home24–178th of 32
31st of 321495Opponent Elo149630th of 32
11th of 321515Elo rating148322nd of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

OilersDucks
14001450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

Last season (2025-26)EDMANA
Puck line38–5043–51
Last 105–55–5
Favorite26–446–29
Underdog12–637–22
Overs–unders53–3554–40
Overs–unders, last 106–44–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

EDM 9–8 ANA in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 17.