St. Louis Blues at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals1
- Cam FowlerAssists3
- Cam FowlerPoints3
Wild- Matt BoldyGoals3
- Kirill KaprizovAssists2
- Matt BoldyPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:45Dylan Holloway Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (3), Cam Fowler (4)4–5
- P316:00Robert Thomas Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (3)3–5
- P216:47Matt Boldy Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (5), Michael McCarron (4)2–5
- P28:47Kirill Kaprizov Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (10), Matt Boldy (2)2–4
- P25:24Matt Boldy Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (4), Kirill Kaprizov (4)2–3
- P24:57Mason McTavish Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Pius Suter (3), Colton Parayko (4)2–2
- P111:17Danila Yurov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Maxim Shabanov (3), Yakov Trenin (1)1–2
- P17:31Matt Boldy Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (9), Joel Eriksson Ek (3)1–1
- P11:45Jonatan Berggren Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Cam Fowler (2), Dalibor Dvorsky (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:45Jonatan Berggren Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Cam Fowler (2), Dalibor Dvorsky (1)STL 1 – 0 MIN · STL 44% → 58% +15STL 44% → 58%+15 pts
- P17:31Matt Boldy Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (9), Joel Eriksson Ek (3)STL 1 – 1 MIN · MIN 40% → 56% +15MIN 40% → 56%+15 pts
- P111:17Danila Yurov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Maxim Shabanov (3), Yakov Trenin (1)STL 1 – 2 MIN · MIN 56% → 71% +15MIN 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P24:57Mason McTavish Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Pius Suter (3), Colton Parayko (4)STL 2 – 2 MIN · STL 27% → 45% +18STL 27% → 45%+18 pts
- P25:24Matt Boldy Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (4), Kirill Kaprizov (4)STL 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 55% → 73% +18MIN 55% → 73%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 56%
- ML STL +120 / MIN -142
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 58.4%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -129
- STL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.6 – 2.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +4 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +59 Elo | MIN 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.32nd of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.79th of 32 |
| 14th of 3251.0% | Shot share | 50.8%16th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 91.5%4th of 32 |
| 11th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 16th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 15167th of 32 |
| 15th of 321507 | Elo rating | 15346th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–3 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 6–5 MIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.