St. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Pius SuterGoals2
- Pavel BuchnevichAssists3
- Pius SuterPoints3
Senators- Claude GirouxGoals1
- Drake BathersonAssists1
- Claude GirouxPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:33Fabian Zetterlund Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Stephen Halliday (1), Shane Pinto (5)7–2
- P316:32Adam Jiricek Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Pius Suter (2), Mason McTavish (3)7–1
- P315:33Mason McTavish Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (4), Pavel Buchnevich (4)6–1
- P314:46Jake Neighbours Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (3), Cam Fowler (1)5–1
- P37:54Pius Suter Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Ross Johnston (1), Brandon Carlo (1)4–1
- P218:25Mason McTavish Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Jonatan Berggren (2), Connor McMichael (3)3–1
- P217:52Claude Giroux Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (6), Drake Batherson (2)2–1
- P213:20Jake Neighbours Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (2), Dylan Holloway (4)2–0
- P114:28Pius Suter Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (3), Pavel Buchnevich (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:28Pius Suter Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (3), Pavel Buchnevich (2)STL 1 – 0 OTT · STL 54% → 70% +16STL 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P213:20Jake Neighbours Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (2), Dylan Holloway (4)STL 2 – 0 OTT · STL 73% → 88% +15STL 73% → 88%+15 pts
- P217:52Claude Giroux Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (6), Drake Batherson (2)STL 2 – 1 OTT · OTT 10% → 25% +15OTT 10% → 25%+15 pts
- P218:25Mason McTavish Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Jonatan Berggren (2), Connor McMichael (3)STL 3 – 1 OTT · STL 75% → 90% +15STL 75% → 90%+15 pts
- P37:54Pius Suter Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Ross Johnston (1), Brandon Carlo (1)STL 4 – 1 OTT · STL 95% → >99% +4STL 95% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- STL 54%
- ML STL -130 / OTT +110
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- STL: Elo 48.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -119
- OTT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.9 – 2.6 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −18 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · OTT: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.46 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +12 Elo | OTT 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.04th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.4 | Margin | +1.28th of 32 |
| 15th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 47.2%24th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 93.1%4th of 32 |
| 17th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 22nd of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 148327th of 32 |
| 17th of 321501 | Elo rating | 15337th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–3 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 1–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 1–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–1 OTT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.