San Jose Sharks at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Mason MarchmentGoals1
- Tyler ToffoliAssists1
- Mason MarchmentPoints1
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals1
- Auston MatthewsAssists2
- Auston MatthewsPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:20Nick Paul Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (9), Colton Sissons (2)1–3
- P34:56Gavin McKenna Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (8), William Nylander (8)1–2
- P219:48Auston Matthews Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (6), Darren Raddysh (5)1–1
- P113:54Mason Marchment Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Tyler Toffoli (4)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:54Mason Marchment Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Tyler Toffoli (4)SJ 1 – 0 TOR · SJ 45% → 62% +16SJ 45% → 62%+16 pts
- P219:48Auston Matthews Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (6), Darren Raddysh (5)SJ 1 – 1 TOR · TOR 29% → 53% +24TOR 29% → 53%+24 pts
- P34:56Gavin McKenna Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (8), William Nylander (8)SJ 1 – 2 TOR · TOR 53% → 79% +26TOR 53% → 79%+26 pts
- P319:20Nick Paul Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (9), Colton Sissons (2)SJ 1 – 3 TOR · TOR >99% → >99% +0TOR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Maple Leafs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML SJ +114 / TOR -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 58.9%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -123
- SJ +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 3.1 – 3.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −16 | −1 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.41 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · TOR: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −8 | Key absences: William Nylander, John Tavares |
| Elo ratings | TOR +62 Elo | TOR 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 58.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.212th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.624th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.9 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 48.8%18th of 32 |
| 24th of 3287.7% | Save percentage | 88.6%20th of 32 |
| 11th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 2–425th of 32 |
| 14th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15176th of 32 |
| 29th of 321447 | Elo rating | 146727th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–4 | 3–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 3–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 0–6 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 4–2 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.