Boston Bruins at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Fraser MintenGoals2
- Morgan GeekieAssists2
- Fraser MintenPoints2
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals1
- Dmitry OrlovAssists2
- Macklin CelebriniPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:18William Borgen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none6–3
- P311:47Fraser Minten Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Marat Khusnutdinov (2), Mason Lohrei (3)5–3
- P35:04Macklin Celebrini Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ivar Stenberg (3), Will Smith (2)4–3
- P219:57Pavel Zacha Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (5), David Pastrnak (6)4–2
- P28:42Matthew Poitras Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Mark Kastelic (4), Morgan Geekie (4)3–2
- P25:48Ivar Stenberg Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (6), Dmitry Orlov (2)2–2
- P118:43Charlie McAvoy Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (3)2–1
- P115:29Jacob Trouba Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (1), Dmitry Orlov (1)1–1
- P112:55Fraser Minten Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (1), Nikita Zadorov (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:55Fraser Minten Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (1), Nikita Zadorov (3)BOS 1 – 0 SJ · BOS 55% → 70% +16BOS 55% → 70%+16 pts
- P115:29Jacob Trouba Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (1), Dmitry Orlov (1)BOS 1 – 1 SJ · SJ 30% → 46% +16SJ 30% → 46%+16 pts
- P118:43Charlie McAvoy Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (3)BOS 2 – 1 SJ · BOS 54% → 71% +17BOS 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P25:48Ivar Stenberg Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (6), Dmitry Orlov (2)BOS 2 – 2 SJ · SJ 28% → 46% +18SJ 28% → 46%+18 pts
- P28:42Matthew Poitras Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Mark Kastelic (4), Morgan Geekie (4)BOS 3 – 2 SJ · BOS 54% → 73% +19BOS 54% → 73%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 55%
- ML BOS -135 / SJ +114
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 56.1%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -123
- SJ +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.4 – 3.1 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −12 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +43 Elo | BOS 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.626th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.2 | Goals allowed | 3.423rd of 32 |
| 7th of 32+1.2 | Margin | −0.823rd of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.4% | Shot share | 46.8%25th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3292.6% | Save percentage | 87.2%25th of 32 |
| 10th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 2–18th of 32 |
| 12th of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 150811th of 32 |
| 13th of 321511 | Elo rating | 145029th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–2 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | 2–0 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–3 SJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.