Philadelphia Flyers at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Porter MartoneGoals1
- Denver BarkeyAssists1
- Porter MartonePoints1
Bruins- Fraser MintenGoals1
- Fraser MintenAssists2
- Fraser MintenPoints3
Scoring summary
- P315:59Fraser Minten Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (2), Hampus Lindholm (3)1–5
- P39:21Casey Mittelstadt Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (3), James Hagens (2)1–4
- P36:32Porter Martone Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: David Jiricek (1), Denver Barkey (1)1–3
- P31:55Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Fraser Minten (3), William Borgen (2)0–3
- P217:12Mason Lohrei Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (1), Fraser Minten (2)0–2
- P112:21Pavel Zacha Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:21Pavel Zacha Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (5)PHI 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 56% → 72% +15BOS 56% → 72%+15 pts
- P217:12Mason Lohrei Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (1), Fraser Minten (2)PHI 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 76% → 90% +14BOS 76% → 90%+14 pts
- P31:55Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Fraser Minten (3), William Borgen (2)PHI 0 – 3 BOS · BOS 92% → 98% +6BOS 92% → 98%+6 pts
- P36:32Porter Martone Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: David Jiricek (1), Denver Barkey (1)PHI 1 – 3 BOS · PHI <1% → 5% +4PHI <1% → 5%+4 pts
- P39:21Casey Mittelstadt Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (3), James Hagens (2)PHI 1 – 4 BOS · BOS 96% → >99% +3BOS 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 57%
- ML PHI +124 / BOS -148
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 58.3%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -134
- PHI +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.5 – 3.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +4 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +58 Elo | BOS 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 321.2 | Goals scored | 3.014th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 2.49th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−2.6 | Margin | +0.615th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3236.6% | Shot share | 45.0%28th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 92.5%7th of 32 |
| 22nd of 300–3 | Road vs home | 2–111th of 31 |
| 2nd of 321528 | Opponent Elo | 151010th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321482 | Elo rating | 150714th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 1–4 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–4 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–5 BOS in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.