Edmonton Oilers at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Mattias EkholmGoals1
- Evan BouchardAssists1
- Mattias EkholmPoints1
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals1
- Michael MisaAssists1
- Macklin CelebriniPoints1
Scoring summary
- P311:19Macklin Celebrini Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Misa (3)3–1
- P35:40Alex Formenton Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Mathieu Joseph (2), Connor Murphy (1)3–0
- P33:13Vasily Podkolzin Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (10), Evan Bouchard (6)2–0
- P112:37Mattias Ekholm Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Isaac Howard (2), Josh Samanski (1)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:37Mattias Ekholm Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Isaac Howard (2), Josh Samanski (1)EDM 1 – 0 SJ · EDM 57% → 72% +15EDM 57% → 72%+15 pts
- P33:13Vasily Podkolzin Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (10), Evan Bouchard (6)EDM 2 – 0 SJ · EDM 79% → 93% +14EDM 79% → 93%+14 pts
- P35:40Alex Formenton Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Mathieu Joseph (2), Connor Murphy (1)EDM 3 – 0 SJ · EDM 94% → >99% +5EDM 94% → >99%+5 pts
- P311:19Macklin Celebrini Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Misa (3)EDM 3 – 1 SJ · SJ <1% → 2% +2SJ <1% → 2%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.5% of 1,039 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 58%
- ML EDM -155 / SJ +130
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- EDM: Elo 55.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -140
- SJ +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.5 – 3.0 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −14 | EDM: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +38 Elo | EDM 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 56.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 325.5 | Goals scored | 3.015th of 32 |
| 26th of 324.0 | Goals allowed | 3.522nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+1.5 | Margin | −0.522nd of 32 |
| 10th of 3254.1% | Shot share | 46.2%27th of 32 |
| 29th of 3283.3% | Save percentage | 87.6%22nd of 32 |
| 1st of 302–0 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 31 |
| 32nd of 321449 | Opponent Elo | 150417th of 32 |
| 10th of 321520 | Elo rating | 145429th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  EDM |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–50 | 49–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–44 | 3–9 |
| Underdog | 12–6 | 46–24 |
| Overs–unders | 53–35 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 9–2 SJ in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.