San Jose Sharks at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Mason MarchmentGoals1
- Tyler ToffoliAssists1
- Mason MarchmentPoints1
Predators- Steven StamkosGoals1
- Filip ForsbergAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Macklin Celebrini Goal Wrist Shot1–0
- P319:59Steven Stamkos Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (6)2–2
- P39:05Ryan O'Reilly Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (1), Roman Josi (6)2–1
- P34:28Will Smith Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Kesselring (1), Igor Chernyshov (2)2–0
- P15:30Mason Marchment Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (3), Alexander Wennberg (2)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:30Mason Marchment Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (3), Alexander Wennberg (2)SJ 1 – 0 NSH · SJ 46% → 61% +15SJ 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P34:28Will Smith Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Kesselring (1), Igor Chernyshov (2)SJ 2 – 0 NSH · SJ 75% → 92% +17SJ 75% → 92%+17 pts
- P39:05Ryan O'Reilly Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (1), Roman Josi (6)SJ 2 – 1 NSH · NSH 5% → 21% +16NSH 5% → 21%+16 pts
- P319:59Steven Stamkos Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (6)SJ 2 – 2 NSH · NSH 0% → 50% +50NSH 0% → 50%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 54%
- ML SJ +110 / NSH -130
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- NSH: Elo 56.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NSH -119
- SJ +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 3.1 – 3.4 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +19 | −3 | SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.47 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +42 Elo | NSH 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.725th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 27th of 32−1.2 | Margin | −0.522nd of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 43.9%29th of 32 |
| 27th of 3286.1% | Save percentage | 89.7%15th of 32 |
| 11th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–225th of 32 |
| 13th of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 15224th of 32 |
| 30th of 321446 | Elo rating | 147625th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–4 | 4–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 4–2 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | — |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–8 NSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.