New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Simon HolmstromGoals2
- Bo HorvatAssists1
- Simon HolmstromPoints2
Maple Leafs- Colton SissonsGoals1
- Troy StecherAssists1
- Colton SissonsPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:55Simon Holmstrom Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P314:08Simon Holmstrom Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (4), Matthew Schaefer (7)3–1
- P33:54Colton Sissons Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Troy Stecher (1), Easton Cowan (4)2–1
- P218:33Bo Horvat Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (1)2–0
- P18:18Anthony Duclair Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:18Anthony Duclair Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (3)NYI 1 – 0 TOR · NYI 46% → 62% +16NYI 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P218:33Bo Horvat Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (1)NYI 2 – 0 TOR · NYI 71% → 88% +17NYI 71% → 88%+17 pts
- P33:54Colton Sissons Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Troy Stecher (1), Easton Cowan (4)NYI 2 – 1 TOR · TOR 9% → 26% +17TOR 9% → 26%+17 pts
- P314:08Simon Holmstrom Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (4), Matthew Schaefer (7)NYI 3 – 1 TOR · NYI 87% → 99% +12NYI 87% → 99%+12 pts
- P317:55Simon Holmstrom Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYI 4 – 1 TOR · NYI >99% → >99% +0NYI >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 54%
- ML NYI +110 / TOR -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 53.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -119
- NYI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.1 – 3.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −1 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · TOR: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +21 Elo | TOR 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.59th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.523rd of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.4 | Margin | 0.018th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 47.8%23rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3292.7% | Save percentage | 88.9%20th of 32 |
| 27th of 320–3 | Road vs home | 2–322nd of 32 |
| 30th of 321482 | Opponent Elo | 15213rd of 32 |
| 21st of 321481 | Elo rating | 147225th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–3 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 0–5 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 7–3 TOR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.