New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Matias MaccelliGoals1
- Matias MaccelliPoints1
Senators- Ridly GreigGoals1
- Warren FoegeleAssists1
- Ridly GreigPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Shane Pinto Goal Snap Shot0–1
- P215:43Ridly Greig Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (2), Artem Zub (1)1–1
- P119:48Matias Maccelli Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:48Matias Maccelli Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYI 1 – 0 OTT · NYI 42% → 60% +18NYI 42% → 60%+18 pts
- P215:43Ridly Greig Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (2), Artem Zub (1)NYI 1 – 1 OTT · OTT 34% → 56% +22OTT 34% → 56%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 59%
- ML NYI +136 / OTT -162
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- OTT: Elo 64.1%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- OTT -146
- NYI +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.5 – 3.0 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +10 | NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +100 Elo | OTT 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 62.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 2.79th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.7 | Margin | +0.315th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 46.4%28th of 32 |
| 4th of 3292.5% | Save percentage | 90.3%9th of 32 |
| 26th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 2–19th of 32 |
| 30th of 321474 | Opponent Elo | 148626th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321483 | Elo rating | 15279th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–3 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 5–4 OTT in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.