Vancouver Canucks at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Max SassonGoals1
- Arshdeep BainsAssists1
- Brock BoeserPoints1
Islanders- Kyle PalmieriGoals2
- Matthew SchaeferAssists2
- Kyle PalmieriPoints2
Scoring summary
- P35:38Kyle Palmieri Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (4), Matthew Schaefer (6)2–3
- P218:55Brock Boeser Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (7), Filip Hronek (6)2–2
- P27:52Max Sasson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Arshdeep Bains (2), Jamie Oleksiak (3)1–2
- P115:50Matias Maccelli Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Schaefer (5)0–2
- P114:57Kyle Palmieri Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Kessel (1), Bo Horvat (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:57Kyle Palmieri Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Kessel (1), Bo Horvat (3)VAN 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 63% → 77% +15NYI 63% → 77%+15 pts
- P115:50Matias Maccelli Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Schaefer (5)VAN 0 – 2 NYI · NYI 77% → 88% +11NYI 77% → 88%+11 pts
- P27:52Max Sasson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Arshdeep Bains (2), Jamie Oleksiak (3)VAN 1 – 2 NYI · VAN 10% → 22% +12VAN 10% → 22%+12 pts
- P218:55Brock Boeser Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (7), Filip Hronek (6)VAN 2 – 2 NYI · VAN 20% → 41% +21VAN 20% → 41%+21 pts
- P35:38Kyle Palmieri Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (4), Matthew Schaefer (6)VAN 2 – 3 NYI · NYI 57% → 82% +25NYI 57% → 82%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 64%
- ML VAN +170 / NYI -205
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- NYI: Elo 62.0%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- NYI -181
- VAN +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.3 – 3.2 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1419 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +14 | +1 | VAN: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +85 Elo | NYI 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 61.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 31st of 325.0 | Goals allowed | 2.68th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−1.6 | Margin | +0.612th of 32 |
| 30th of 3241.6% | Shot share | 46.9%25th of 32 |
| 31st of 3283.7% | Save percentage | 92.5%5th of 32 |
| 24th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 2–17th of 32 |
| 8th of 321514 | Opponent Elo | 148527th of 32 |
| 31st of 321419 | Elo rating | 148122nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–4 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 4–2 NYI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.