San Jose Sharks at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals1
- Macklin CelebriniAssists2
- Macklin CelebriniPoints3
Red Wings- Emmitt FinnieGoals1
- Moritz SeiderAssists2
- Emmitt FinniePoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Lucas Raymond Goal Snap Shot0–1
- P318:27Alex DeBrincat Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (2), Moritz Seider (5)3–3
- P35:00Emmitt Finnie Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (4), Moritz Seider (4)3–2
- P32:48Ivar Stenberg Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (3), Macklin Celebrini (8)3–1
- P24:55Macklin Celebrini Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Will Smith (3), Michael Kesselring (2)2–1
- P117:59Dmitry Orlov Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Ivar Stenberg (4), Macklin Celebrini (7)1–1
- P112:47Justin Faulk Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Emmitt Finnie (2), Michael Rasmussen (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:59Dmitry Orlov Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Ivar Stenberg (4), Macklin Celebrini (7)SJ 1 – 1 DET · SJ 28% → 44% +16SJ 28% → 44%+16 pts
- P24:55Macklin Celebrini Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Will Smith (3), Michael Kesselring (2)SJ 2 – 1 DET · SJ 44% → 63% +19SJ 44% → 63%+19 pts
- P32:48Ivar Stenberg Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (3), Macklin Celebrini (8)SJ 3 – 1 DET · SJ 72% → 90% +18SJ 72% → 90%+18 pts
- P35:00Emmitt Finnie Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (4), Moritz Seider (4)SJ 3 – 2 DET · DET 9% → 26% +18DET 9% → 26%+18 pts
- P318:27Alex DeBrincat Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (2), Moritz Seider (5)SJ 3 – 3 DET · DET 1% → 51% +50DET 1% → 51%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DET 57%
- ML SJ +124 / DET -148
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- DET: Elo 56.0%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -134
- SJ +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 3.0 – 3.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +18 | −3 | SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.44 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +42 Elo | DET 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.328th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.9 | Margin | −0.724th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 54.4%7th of 32 |
| 25th of 3287.5% | Save percentage | 89.5%13th of 32 |
| 7th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 2–424th of 32 |
| 14th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149521st of 32 |
| 29th of 321449 | Elo rating | 147623rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 3–3 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.