Philadelphia Flyers at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Matvei MichkovGoals1
- Matvei MichkovPoints1
Red Wings- Andrew CoppGoals1
- Dylan LarkinAssists1
- Andrew CoppPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:22Andrew Copp Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (1), Nate Danielson (2)1–2
- P24:31Anton Johansson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (2), Justin Faulk (3)1–1
- P117:32Matvei Michkov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:32Matvei Michkov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: nonePHI 1 – 0 DET · PHI 44% → 61% +17PHI 44% → 61%+17 pts
- P24:31Anton Johansson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (2), Justin Faulk (3)PHI 1 – 1 DET · DET 37% → 56% +19DET 37% → 56%+19 pts
- P315:22Andrew Copp Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (1), Nate Danielson (2)PHI 1 – 2 DET · DET 52% → 91% +39DET 52% → 91%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DET 57%
- ML PHI +124 / DET -148
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- DET: Elo 56.3%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -134
- PHI +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.5 – 3.0 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −16 | −10 | PHI: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.40 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · DET: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +44 Elo | DET 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 57.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 321.3 | Goals scored | 2.328th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.9 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 32 |
| 31st of 32−2.6 | Margin | −1.025th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3237.5% | Shot share | 53.8%8th of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 89.0%18th of 32 |
| 27th of 320–4 | Road vs home | 1–429th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321530 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 32 |
| 27th of 321472 | Elo rating | 147425th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–5 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 2–6 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–5 DET in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.