Seattle Kraken at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Bobby McMannGoals1
- Mackie SamoskevichAssists1
- Bobby McMannPoints1
Flyers- Trevor ZegrasGoals1
- Travis SanheimAssists1
- Christian DvorakPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Bobby McMann Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Matvei Michkov Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Matty Beniers Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- P37:20Trevor Zegras Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (2), Owen Tippett (1)2–2
- P36:07Christian Dvorak Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Bonk (1), Dan Vladar (1)2–1
- P28:54Ville Ottavainen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (1), Josh Mahura (2)2–0
- P17:57Bobby McMann Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (3), Chandler Stephenson (6)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:57Bobby McMann Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (3), Chandler Stephenson (6)SEA 1 – 0 PHI · SEA 50% → 65% +15SEA 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P28:54Ville Ottavainen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (1), Josh Mahura (2)SEA 2 – 0 PHI · SEA 69% → 84% +15SEA 69% → 84%+15 pts
- P36:07Christian Dvorak Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Bonk (1), Dan Vladar (1)SEA 2 – 1 PHI · PHI 7% → 23% +16PHI 7% → 23%+16 pts
- P37:20Trevor Zegras Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (2), Owen Tippett (1)SEA 2 – 2 PHI · PHI 21% → 50% +29PHI 21% → 50%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 50%
- ML SEA -108 / PHI -112
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.4%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -102
- SEA +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.7 – 2.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +5 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +45 Elo | PHI 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 324.3 | Goals scored | 1.132nd of 32 |
| 13th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 4.027th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.5 | Margin | −2.931st of 32 |
| 28th of 3245.5% | Shot share | 36.3%32nd of 32 |
| 7th of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 89.0%19th of 32 |
| 5th of 323–1 | Road vs home | 0–329th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321490 | Opponent Elo | 15381st of 32 |
| 25th of 321474 | Elo rating | 147426th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–2 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–1 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–1 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–2 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.