Seattle Kraken at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Frederick GaudreauGoals1
- Ben MeyersAssists2
- Frederick GaudreauPoints2
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- Aliaksei ProtasAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:20Ryan Winterton Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ben Meyers (4), Freddy Gaudreau (1)5–3
- P314:33Jared McCann Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (5), Ryker Evans (3)4–3
- P30:46Boone Jenner Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none3–3
- P213:24Freddy Gaudreau Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Ryan Winterton (4), Ben Meyers (3)3–2
- P119:49Jordan Eberle Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (5), Bobby McMann (1)2–2
- P116:47Alex Ovechkin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ilya Protas (2), Aliaksei Protas (2)1–2
- P111:41Jordan Kyrou Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Hutson (2), Ryan Leonard (2)1–1
- P16:06Kaapo Kakko Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (4), Adam Larsson (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:41Jordan Kyrou Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Hutson (2), Ryan Leonard (2)SEA 1 – 1 WSH · WSH 47% → 63% +16WSH 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P119:49Jordan Eberle Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (5), Bobby McMann (1)SEA 2 – 2 WSH · SEA 23% → 38% +15SEA 23% → 38%+15 pts
- P213:24Freddy Gaudreau Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Ryan Winterton (4), Ben Meyers (3)SEA 3 – 2 WSH · SEA 40% → 62% +22SEA 40% → 62%+22 pts
- P30:46Boone Jenner Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: noneSEA 3 – 3 WSH · WSH 33% → 58% +25WSH 33% → 58%+25 pts
- P314:33Jared McCann Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (5), Ryker Evans (3)SEA 4 – 3 WSH · SEA 46% → 86% +41SEA 46% → 86%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 64%
- ML SEA +170 / WSH -205
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- WSH: Elo 64.5%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- WSH -181
- SEA +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.8 – 3.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +6 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +104 Elo | WSH 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 63.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 324.2 | Goals scored | 3.510th of 32 |
| 14th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.36th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.4 | Margin | +1.35th of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.1% | Shot share | 47.0%24th of 32 |
| 8th of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 93.0%4th of 32 |
| 6th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 25th of 321485 | Opponent Elo | 15341st of 32 |
| 28th of 321469 | Elo rating | 15317th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  SEA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 47–35 | 45–37 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 24–28 |
| Underdog | 41–28 | 21–9 |
| Overs–unders | 36–46 | 37–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–4 WSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.