Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Andrei SvechnikovGoals1
- William CarrierAssists2
- Sebastian AhoPoints2
Flyers- Christian DvorakGoals1
- Nick SeelerAssists1
- Christian DvorakPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:09Mark Jankowski Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (2), Jalen Chatfield (2)4–1
- P216:54Sebastian Aho Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: William Carrier (5), Andrei Svechnikov (4)3–1
- P215:26Christian Dvorak Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Nick Seeler (2), Denver Barkey (2)2–1
- P213:45Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (5), William Carrier (4)2–0
- P210:16Andrei Svechnikov Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:16Andrei Svechnikov Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (5)CAR 1 – 0 PHI · CAR 62% → 80% +17CAR 62% → 80%+17 pts
- P213:45Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (5), William Carrier (4)CAR 2 – 0 PHI · CAR 80% → 92% +12CAR 80% → 92%+12 pts
- P215:26Christian Dvorak Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Nick Seeler (2), Denver Barkey (2)CAR 2 – 1 PHI · PHI 8% → 20% +12PHI 8% → 20%+12 pts
- P216:54Sebastian Aho Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: William Carrier (5), Andrei Svechnikov (4)CAR 3 – 1 PHI · CAR 80% → 93% +12CAR 80% → 93%+12 pts
- P315:09Mark Jankowski Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (2), Jalen Chatfield (2)CAR 4 – 1 PHI · CAR >99% → >99% +0CAR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 67%
- ML CAR -230 / PHI +190
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- CAR: Elo 57.6%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- CAR -202
- PHI +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.2 – 2.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1584 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −17 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · PHI: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.42 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +53 Elo | CAR 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.8 | Goals scored | 1.232nd of 32 |
| 12th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 4.028th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+1.2 | Margin | −2.831st of 32 |
| 1st of 3259.6% | Shot share | 35.9%32nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3287.8% | Save percentage | 89.3%19th of 32 |
| 1st of 323–0 | Road vs home | 0–229th of 32 |
| 28th of 321477 | Opponent Elo | 15281st of 32 |
| 1st of 321584 | Elo rating | 147824th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | — | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 2–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 14–2 PHI in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 16.
- Oct 3CAR 3 @ PHI 2Picked CAR 55%Hit
- May 9CAR 3 @ PHI 2PlayoffsPicked CAR 64%Hit
- May 7CAR 4 @ PHI 1PlayoffsPicked CAR 60%Hit
- May 4PHI 2 @ CAR 3PlayoffsPicked CAR 70%Hit
- May 2PHI 0 @ CAR 3PlayoffsPicked CAR 69%Hit
- Apr 13CAR 2 @ PHI 3Picked PHI 59%Hit
- Dec 14PHI 2 @ CAR 3Picked CAR 69%Hit
- Dec 13CAR 4 @ PHI 3Picked CAR 62%Hit