Carolina Hurricanes at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jordan MartinookGoals1
- Mike ReillyAssists2
- Jordan MartinookPoints2
Blackhawks- Oliver MooreGoals1
- Ryan DonatoAssists1
- Oliver MoorePoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:14Oliver Moore Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Kaiser (2), Ryan Donato (1)5–2
- P35:00Jordan Martinook Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (3), Mike Reilly (2)5–1
- P26:05Taylor Hall Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (6), Mike Reilly (1)4–1
- P24:40Roman Kantserov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P23:28Jackson Blake Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (1), Jordan Martinook (1)3–0
- P22:09Sebastian Aho Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (2)2–0
- P119:03Mark Jankowski Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (2), Eric Robinson (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:03Mark Jankowski Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (2), Eric Robinson (2)CAR 1 – 0 CHI · CAR 66% → 80% +14CAR 66% → 80%+14 pts
- P22:09Sebastian Aho Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (2)CAR 2 – 0 CHI · CAR 80% → 91% +10CAR 80% → 91%+10 pts
- P23:28Jackson Blake Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (1), Jordan Martinook (1)CAR 3 – 0 CHI · CAR 91% → 96% +6CAR 91% → 96%+6 pts
- P24:40Roman Kantserov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCAR 3 – 1 CHI · CHI 4% → 9% +6CHI 4% → 9%+6 pts
- P26:05Taylor Hall Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (6), Mike Reilly (1)CAR 4 – 1 CHI · CAR 91% → 97% +6CAR 91% → 97%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 69%
- ML CAR -258 / CHI +210
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- CAR: Elo 67.1%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- CAR -223
- CHI +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.3 – 2.2 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1581 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +4 | CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +124 Elo | CAR 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 62.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.029th of 32 |
| 14th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 4.228th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −2.230th of 32 |
| 1st of 3259.5% | Shot share | 41.2%30th of 32 |
| 24th of 3286.7% | Save percentage | 86.5%25th of 32 |
| 1st of 302–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
| 23rd of 321490 | Opponent Elo | 15138th of 32 |
| 1st of 321581 | Elo rating | 142032nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | — |
| Underdog | — | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 5–1 CHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.