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Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast

NHL Net

Away

Oilers

13-3-3

54%

at

Home

Maple Leafs

8-10-2

46%

The pick
EDM · Toss-up
Line
Not yet
Projected
3–3
Fair odds
-118

Your pick

Scotiabank Arena · NHL Net

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Oilers at 54%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Oilers rate higher (1537 to 1468 Elo) and the Maple Leafs have home ice.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Oilers

Now 96%

96%

with a win

95%

with a loss

This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.

Maple Leafs

Now 14%

16%

with a win

12%

with a loss

This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Oilers 54%

Toss-up
EDM 54%TOR 46%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
EDM 54%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
EDM 56%
Fair odds
EDM -118
TOR +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
EDM 3.3 – 3.1 TOR
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorEDMTORWhy
Team rating15371468Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies0−6EDM: Devon Levi: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · TOR: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsEDM +40 EloEDM 55.7%
Market-implied ratingsEDM 53.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastEDM 54.2%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs compared, with each team's league rank
EDMStatTOR
1st of 324.1Goals scored3.413th of 32
9th of 322.9Goals allowed3.524th of 32
3rd of 32+1.2Margin−0.120th of 32
18th of 3249.1%Shot share48.7%20th of 32
12th of 3289.6%Save percentage89.1%18th of 32
8th of 326–4Last 104–621st of 32
1st of 327–1Road vs home4–829th of 32
32nd of 321476Opponent Elo150212th of 32
7th of 321537Elo rating146827th of 32

Player props

Projected from ice time and per-minute production, and each goalie's expected shots against, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 159,528 graded NHL lines (log loss 0.549 vs our model's 0.551). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 57% and returned +6.9% a bet over 2,488 graded lines. Not betting advice.

Your parlay →
PlayerProjLineOverParlay
Connor McDavidEDM1.6—— No line
Leon DraisaitlEDM1.4—— No line
Evan BouchardEDM1.0—— No line
William NylanderTOR0.9—— No line
Auston MatthewsTOR0.9—— No line
Darren RaddyshTOR0.7—— No line
John TavaresTOR0.7—— No line
Jack RoslovicTOR0.6—— No line
Zach HymanEDM0.6—— No line
Gavin McKennaTOR0.6—— No line
Ryan Nugent-HopkinsEDM0.6—— No line
Easton CowanTOR0.6—— No line
Mattias EkholmEDM0.5—— No line
Kasperi KapanenEDM0.4—— No line
Vasily PodkolzinEDM0.4—— No line
Nick PaulTOR0.4—— No line
Ryan SheaEDM0.3—— No line
Oliver Ekman-LarssonTOR0.3—— No line
Teddy BluegerTOR0.3—— No line
Colton DachEDM0.3—— No line
Jake McCabeTOR0.3—— No line
Dakota JoshuaTOR0.3—— No line
Mathieu JosephEDM0.2—— No line
Jason DickinsonEDM0.2—— No line
Jake WalmanEDM0.2—— No line
Filip HallanderEDM0.2—— No line
Alex FormentonEDM0.2—— No line
Connor MurphyEDM0.2—— No line
Ryan TverbergTOR0.2—— No line
Troy StecherTOR0.2—— No line
Shakir MukhamadullinEDM0.2—— No line
Chris TanevTOR0.2—— No line
Brandon DuhaimeTOR0.2—— No line
Cole McWardTOR0.2—— No line
Dakota MermisTOR0.1—— No line
Ty EmbersonEDM0.1—— No line

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

OilersMaple Leafs
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Oilers

5 listed

  • Isaac Howard LW

    Injured Reserve

    ir

  • Alec Regula D

    Injured Reserve

    Regula (undisclosed) was designated for long-term injured reserve Thursday.

  • Matt Savoie C

    Injured Reserve

    Savoie (lower body) was shifted to long-term injured reserve Thursday.

  • Frederik Andersen G

    Injured Reserve

    Andersen (knee) isn't expected back until "maybe" December, head coach Mike Babcock told NHL.com on Tuesday.

  • Mattias Janmark C

    Injured Reserve

    Janmark (undisclosed) does not have a timetable for his return from injury.

Maple Leafs

10 listed

  • Morgan Rielly D

    Out

    Rielly (lower body) has been deemed day-to-day and will not play in Tuesday's home clash against the Avalanche, per David Alter of The Hockey News.

  • Colton Sissons C

    Out

    out

  • Kirill Marchenko RW

    Injured Reserve

    ir

  • Miles Wood LW

    Injured Reserve

    Wood (undisclosed) was transferred to long-term injured reserve Wednesday, David Alter of The Hockey News reports.

  • Nick Blankenburg D

    Injured Reserve

    Blankenburg (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Maple Leafs on Friday, David Alter of The Hockey News reports.

  • Marshall Rifai D

    Injured Reserve

    ir

  • Max Domi C

    Injured Reserve

    Domi (back) was transferred from the non-roster list to long-term injured reserve Wednesday, per PuckPedia.

  • Cade Webber D

    Injured Reserve

    ir-nr

  • Elvis Merzlikins G

    Injured Reserve

    Merzlikins is expected to miss 4-6 months to begin the 2026-27 regular season while recovering from a shoulder injury, per Luke Fox of Sportsnet.

  • William Villeneuve D

    Injured Reserve

    ir-nr

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonEDMTOR
Puck line13–69–10
Last 107–36–4
Favorite9–52–8
Underdog4–17–2
Overs–unders10–911–8
Overs–unders, last 105–56–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

EDM 2–5 TOR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.