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Anaheim Ducks at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, Prime Video (Local)

Away

Ducks

8-7-1

5–4

at

Home

Oilers

11-3-3

ANA 38%EDM 62%

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Rogers Place · ESPN+, Prime Video (Local)

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.

EDM favored ANA favored9 scoring plays
P1P2P3EDM50%ANA

How the forecast moved

EDM went from 64% to 62% over 5 updates; the betting line was first on file Wednesday, November 4 at 11:31 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.

Forecast (EDM win chance) Betting line, margin removed
55%63%70%Mon 9 PMWed 8 AMThu 8 PM

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Scoring summary

  • P319:15Leon Draisaitl Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (34), Evan Bouchard (20)5–4
  • P316:24Kasperi Kapanen Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (7), Connor McDavid (33)5–3
  • P31:42Beckett Sennecke Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (19), Cutter Gauthier (6)5–2
  • P219:22Beckett Sennecke Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Tristan Luneau (9), Pavel Mintyukov (4)4–2
  • P26:15Pavel Mintyukov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Judd Caulfield (5), Mikael Granlund (10)3–2
  • P23:37Pavel Mintyukov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (9), Drew Helleson (1)2–2
  • P22:34Connor McDavid Goal (10) Batted, assists: Leon Draisaitl (17), Mattias Ekholm (5)1–2
  • P119:41Evan Bouchard Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (32), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (6)1–1
  • P19:26Cutter Gauthier Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (17), Leo Carlsson (18)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P119:41Evan Bouchard Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (32), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (6)ANA 1 – 1 EDM · EDM 42% → 60% +18
  2. P22:34Connor McDavid Goal (10) Batted, assists: Leon Draisaitl (17), Mattias Ekholm (5)ANA 1 – 2 EDM · EDM 60% → 76% +16
  3. P23:37Pavel Mintyukov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (9), Drew Helleson (1)ANA 2 – 2 EDM · ANA 24% → 40% +17
  4. P26:15Pavel Mintyukov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Judd Caulfield (5), Mikael Granlund (10)ANA 3 – 2 EDM · ANA 41% → 60% +19
  5. P219:22Beckett Sennecke Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Tristan Luneau (9), Pavel Mintyukov (4)ANA 4 – 2 EDM · ANA 67% → 86% +19

The pick

Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.

Oilers 62%

SolidMiss
ANA 38%EDM 62%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.

Market
EDM 62%
ML ANA +154 / EDM -185
Pre-line forecast
EDM 64%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
EDM 65%
Ratings vs. market
+2.4 pts
EDM: Elo 64.7%, market 62.2%
Fair odds
EDM -165
ANA +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
ANA 2.9 – 3.6 EDM
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorANAEDMWhy
Team rating14731535Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−6+2ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · EDM: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsEDM +105 EloEDM 64.7%
Market-implied ratingsEDM 63.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastEDM 63.9%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastEDM 62.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Anaheim Ducks and Edmonton Oilers compared, with each team's league rank
ANAStatEDM
7th of 323.6Goals scored4.21st of 32
30th of 323.8Goals allowed3.010th of 32
22nd of 32−0.2Margin+1.23rd of 32
26th of 3247.6%Shot share48.8%19th of 32
31st of 3286.5%Save percentage89.7%11th of 32
27th of 323–7Last 106–48th of 32
4th of 325–3Road vs home4–419th of 32
29th of 321487Opponent Elo148230th of 32
26th of 321473Elo rating15356th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

DucksOilers
14001450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonANAEDM
Puck line8–711–5
Last 104–66–4
Favorite1–37–4
Underdog7–44–1
Overs–unders8–79–7
Overs–unders, last 106–46–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

ANA 8–10 EDM in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 18.