Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
EDM went from 68% to 63% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, October 27 at 10:34 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames
Oilers- Mathieu JosephGoals1
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsAssists2
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPoints2
Scoring summary
- P31:16Alex Formenton Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Dickinson (2)0–4
- P30:55Kasperi Kapanen Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (28), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (4)0–3
- P24:52Mattias Ekholm Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (3)0–2
- P17:46Mathieu Joseph Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (27), Evan Bouchard (15)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:46Mathieu Joseph Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (27), Evan Bouchard (15)CGY 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 62% → 76% +14EDM 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P24:52Mattias Ekholm Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (3)CGY 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 77% → 89% +12EDM 77% → 89%+12 pts
- P30:55Kasperi Kapanen Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (28), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (4)CGY 0 – 3 EDM · EDM 93% → 98% +5EDM 93% → 98%+5 pts
- P31:16Alex Formenton Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Dickinson (2)CGY 0 – 4 EDM · EDM 98% → >99% +1EDM 98% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Oilers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 63%
- ML CGY +160 / EDM -192
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- EDM: Elo 63.0%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- EDM -171
- CGY +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.9 – 3.6 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −3 | CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · EDM: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +93 Elo | EDM 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 70.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 69.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 4.31st of 32 |
| 31st of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.628th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−1.2 | Margin | +0.75th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.0% | Shot share | 48.6%20th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 87.6%28th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 26th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 3–424th of 32 |
| 16th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 148329th of 32 |
| 29th of 321459 | Elo rating | 152411th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–6 | 7–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 5–4 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 5–6 EDM in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.